Yesterday afternoon, the news outlets started calling the Mississippi Senate race for the Democrat, Scott Colom. Not all of the provisional ballots have been counted yet, but as they are being counted they have been breaking heavily towards Colom, and his lead now is in excess of 0.5%.

So, the Senate is officially at 55-44 now, as we still await Alaska, where first-choice votes are still being counted. Right now Peltola is ahead of Senator Sullivan, 48.9% to 47.3%; it seems likely that she will not get to 50% in the first-choice votes, requiring ranked choice reallocations to determine a victor. The Alaska governor’s race is similarly tight: here the Democrat, running against three Republicans, has 49.8% of the first-choice votes.

NYTimes currently has the House score at 255-168. Of the 12 uncalled races, 2 are extremely safe Republican seats in Louisiana that will require runoffs because multiple Republicans were running in the ‘jungle general’ against a single Democrat, and 2 are ranked choice races where the Republican is expected to ultimately prevail (Alaska and Maine 2nd). Another is Boebert’s seat in the Colorado 4th, which CNN has already called for the Democrat, whose lead is currently 48.8% to 47.9%. Then, there are still 4 uncalled races in which the Democrat is currently ahead by approximately 300 votes: Minnesota 1st, Tennessee 4th, North Carolina 3rd, and North Carolina 5th. If all of those leads hold, that would get the Democrats to 260. The remaining three uncalled races are all seats where the Republican’s lead is currently more than 2000 votes.

Earlier this week, the lame duck Congress re-convened. Outgoing Representative Massie (R-KY) introduced eight impeachment charges against Secretary of Defense Hegseth. Somewhat unexpectedly, the Republicans succeeded in a motion to refer the impeachment charges to a committee, essentially killing things for the duration of this congress. However it is expected that the new Congress will renew the push to impeach Hegseth, albeit possibly without any Republican support.

Judge Chutkan has indeed temporarily blocked the commencement of construction on Trump’s 250-foot arch, agreeing with plaintiffs that the administration’s intended actions probably violate the Commemorative Works Act of 1986.

Finally, today the CEO of tech company Nvidia, which in recent years has grown to become one of the very largest and most influential companies in the world, resigned. This has geopolitical implications since the main reason for his departure is recent reporting that he’d been having an affair with another tech industry figure who is quite possibly a Chinese spy, and that the export-controlled AI chips that Nvidia had sold to his paramour’s Singapore-based company may have ended up in China. Commerce Secretary Lutnick may be in some trouble over this.

Not a lot of movement in recent days. Colom’s lead in Mississippi keeps growing and is now 0.27%. Alaska remains days away from resolution. Several interesting House races remain uncalled, with NBC’s forecast of the ultimate score remaining 259-176.

Here’s an interesting way to think about the House election, using designations from ABC, who has the current score at 253-164.

There were 186 Solid D, 17 Likely D, and 23 Leaning D seats; the Democrats won them all (or will; 2 of these are uncalled California races featuring two Democrats).

There were 14 Tossup seats; the Democrats won them all. One of these that I haven’t talked about yet is the Alabama 2nd. This had been the second majority-minority district in Alabama, in its Black Belt; however, after May’s SCOTUS decision in Callais, a previously-blocked Alabama map was put into effect for this election, one which was expected to flip the 2nd district to the Republicans. Given the overall climate, Silver’s model had the Democratic incumbent at 32% to keep his seat, and he did, 54-46.

There were 18 Leaning R seats. Only 4 of those have been called for the Republicans, while 6 have already been called for Democrats, including the Wisconsin 1st (Paul Ryan’s old seat in the southeastern corner of the state). Three more have the Democrat in the lead, and they’re all seats we’ve talked about: Finstad’s seat in the Minnesota 3rd, Boebert’s in the Colorado 4th, and Democratic incumbent Soto’s seat in the Florida 9th which Republicans thought they’d gerrymandered away.

There were 15 Likely R seats. A remarkable 6 of these have already been called for the Democrats, including the Indiana 5th as well as two seats in North Carolina (the 9th and 13th). In another one of these in North Carolina, the 3rd, the Republican is only ahead by 233 votes.

Finally, there were 162 Solid R seats. Two of these, both in North Carolina (the 6th and 14th), have already flipped; a third of these in North Carolina, the 5th, has the Democrat currently ahead by 99 votes. Silver had the 5th at 5.6% for the Democrats, the 14th at 4.0%, and the 6th at 1.8%. Another seat here is the Tennessee 4th, which I talked about in my last post and where the Democrat challenger has a 280-vote lead. The Florida 26th (2.6% to flip per Silver), South Carolina 2nd (2.0%), and California 23rd (1.3%) remain uncalled, but the Republicans have narrow leads in each.

In other electoral news, the Democrat-on-Democrat Mayoral race in Los Angeles has been called in favor of the progressive challenger, Councilwoman Nithya Raman, over incumbent Karen Bass.

Finally, Trump announced that his Chief of Staff Susie Wiles will be stepping down, to be replaced by her deputy, the widely loathed Stephen Miller. This, coupled with Trump having worn a red hat with the single word “VETO” in a public appearance this week, suggests that Trump has no intention of going gently into that good night now that he’s a very lame duck.

It is looking increasingly likely that Scott Colom will upset Cindy Hyde-Smith, becoming Mississippi’s first Black Senator since Reconstruction. His lead has expanded considerably over the course of the past day, now sitting at 1,813 votes, which is roughly 0.1%.

Recall that earlier this summer, there was a 5-4 SCOTUS decision in favor of the Mississippi state law that permits mail-in ballots to be counted if they are received up to 5 days after election day. In light of that, as well as the rules around giving people who cast provisional ballots an ability to ‘cure’ them after election day, it should still be a while until a call is made. However, Colom’s optimism from yesterday appears to have been justified.

Things are also looking promising in Alaska. Only about three-quarters of the first-preference votes have been counted at this point, with Mary Peltola at 48.2%, the incumbent Dan S. Sullivan at 47.9%, Republican Gerald Helkes at 2.3%, and the mercurial Daniel J. Sullivan at 1.7%. Given that Alaska is a ranked choice state, on its surface that doesn’t sound so good for Peltola: One might expect all of Helkes’ vote to go to Senator Sullivan, and if you believe the story about name confusion then you might expect most of Daniel J.’s vote to also go to the Senator. Put differently, as the only Democrat on the ballot, from whom would Peltola be picking up second-preference votes? However, the NYTimes has an analysis today indicating that Peltola is actually attracting a sizeable fraction of the second-preference votes from both of the minor candidates. Coupling this with the fact that much of the uncounted mail-in vote is expected to favor Peltola, Polymarket currently implies a 97% chance that Peltola will win.

So, that would make 56 Senators in the Democratic caucus, which starts to beg a very interesting question: What is the possibility that 60 could be in play for 2028? The Democrats will have to defend the seat Brown just won in Ohio, and they also have to defend Kelly’s seat in Arizona, Fetterman’s in Pennsylvania (and one imagines there will be a primary challenge to unseat him), Cortez Masto’s in Nevada, and Warnock’s in Georgia. (There will also be a special election here in Minnesota in November 2027, on account of Klobuchar vacating the seat to become Governor.) On the flip side, the Republicans will have to defend the seat Moody just won in Florida, as well as several seats that now look vulnerable: Johnson in Wisconsin, Budd in North Carolina, Grassley (who would be 95 in 2028) in Iowa, Moran in Kansas, Scott in South Carolina, and Kennedy in Louisiana (a state where the Democrats lost narrowly in this cycle, 51-49, despite minimal investment). Murkowski will also be up for re-election in Alaska, where the ballot measure to repeal ranked choice and reinstate partisan primaries is currently failing, 51-49.

Over in the House, the NYTimes has the current score at 253-155, while NBC has it at 249-157; NBC now forecasts a final score of 259-176. The Maine 2nd race will be going to ranked choice re-allocations, with Republican LePage (who has already declared victory) currently ahead 49.9% to 48.3%, but that look like a rare blue-to-red flip. Still uncalled is the Minnesota 1st, where challenger Johnson remains ahead of Finstad, now by 321 votes. In another prominent uncalled race, the Colorado 4th, Lauren Boebert is behind 48.0% to 48.7%; Silver’s model had her as a 76% favorite.

We haven’t talked about Tennessee yet, where a gerrymander was designed to shift the House delegation from 8-1 Republican to 9-0. In the previously Democratic seat, the 9th district, the influence of Memphis voters was diluted via the addition of rural areas. The incumbent Democrat declined to run again after the gerrymander; however, 31-year-old State Representative Justin Pearson, who has become a prominent figure on the left in recent years, put up an unexpectedly good fight, only losing 48.5% to 49.6% (Silver’s model had him at 6% to win). And next door in the 4th district, a seat that Silver’s model had at 99.5% for the Republicans remains uncalled: the incumbent, DesJarlais, is currently behind by 380 votes. The Democrat, 34-year-old Victoria Broderick, had lost in 2024 to DesJarlais, 70-27. If she holds on to win, I imagine she becomes the least likely member of the 120th Congress–even less likely than Scott Colom, or some of the new Democratic Representatives from North Carolina.

At 12:30am my time, El-Sayed came out to give a victory speech, even though the race remained uncalled at that point; I stayed up to watch, then went to bed. Sometime while I slept, the race was called for him, making the Senate score 54-44 with just Mississippi and Alaska left. Alaska is going to take a while longer to even count the first-preference votes, and then there’s ranked choice reallocations to worry about; it may be two weeks before we have clarity there.

Very little Mississippi vote has been reported in the last several hours; Colom’s margin currently stands at 43 votes, compared with 28 in my last post. The election may well depend on provisional ballots. There is, apparently, no mechanism whatsoever under Mississippi law for a recount in a Senate race.

Per NBC News, the current score in the House is 231-144, and their projected score is now up to 258-179. Among the uncalled races is the Minnesota 1st, where overnight the Democrat Johnson declared victory; right now he is ahead of Finstad by 321 votes. Another very close uncalled race is the Maine 2nd, the red-leaning seat currently held by moderate Democrat Jared Golden, who did not run again. Right now the Democrat, Matthew Dunlap, leads by 707 votes over controversial former Republican governor Paul LePage. Out in the Colorado 4th, controversial Republican Representative Lauren Boebert is trailing by 1.5% in an uncalled race.

The overall national picture looks to be something like 56-43 for the Democrats. North Carolina continues to surprise. NBC News has already called 9 of the 14 races there for the Democrats — only 4 of which were previously held by Democrats, and 1 of which was supposed to vanish due to gerrymandering — with 3 races still uncalled.

State-level results have been quite strong for the Democrats, as I’m sure I’ll discuss at greater length in the coming days. Recall that in the 2024 cycle there were 7 major battleground states, all of which went to Trump in the end. In 2028 all 7 of those states will have Democratic Governors, thanks to pickups in not only Ohio (Acton) and Georgia (Bottoms) as discussed last night but also Nevada (Ford), as well as successful re-elections in Arizona (Hobbs) and Pennsylvania (Shapiro), and successful holds of open seats in Michigan (Benson) and Wisconsin (Crowley).

Unexpectedly, I think this can be my last post of the night and I can head to bed soon. The major outlines of the night are known; it was, indeed, the blue tsunami.

The current score in the House per the NYTimes is only 204-123, but their expectation for the final House margin is a staggering 256-179. That looks to be something like a 90th percentile result from Silver’s model.

With Maine having been called since I last posted, the current score in the Senate is 53-41. Michigan is looking excellent for El-Sayed; he is currently ahead 50.6% to 47.4% with two-thirds of the vote in, but much of the outstanding vote is from Wayne County. I fully imagine this race will be called in the very early morning hours.

While I was writing this post, Colom took a 28-vote lead in the Mississippi Senate race. Remarkable. The NYTimes needle has Hyde-Smith’s chances of winning back down to only 70%. A Black independent candidate, Pinkins, has 2.1% of the vote.

It took a while for the urban vote here in Minnesota to come in, but a few minutes ago the Senate race was called for Flanagan over Tafoya. There is also reporting just now from Maine that Collins has called Jackson to concede.

So, we’re still waiting on Michigan and Mississippi and Nebraska and Montana and Alaska, but Maine would give the Democrats 53 without any of those. I still think El-Sayed and Peltola will come through, making the final score 55-45. But we shall see.

Here in Minnesota, Klobuchar has also won the governor’s race. In our district, the 2nd, Democrat Matt Little is comfortably ahead 60-40 with three-quarters of the vote in. Down in the 1st, right now the incumbent Finstad is narrowly ahead of the Democrat Johnson, 50.4% to 49.5%.

Calls have come in recent minutes in the Senate races in both Kansas and Iowa. That means that, even with Maine and Michigan (and Minnesota) still uncalled, and the polls not yet closed in Alaska, the Democrats can count to 51 in the Senate.

Nebraska and Mississippi also remain uncalled at this point, but both are expected to go Republican. The independent Osborn is still ahead of Ricketts by about 3 points with more than half of the vote in, but the NYTimes model thinks this is an illusion and Ricketts will win handily. Down south, Hyde-Smith is ahead of Colom by about 2 points with more than 90% of the vote in, and the NYTimes model thinks she is over 90% to pull it out.

In the last few minutes, the Senate races in both Texas and Ohio have been called for the Democrats. One imagines Kansas will be the next call, with Hamilton currently ahead 52.2% to 44.8% on 92% of the vote.

There is also reporting that Governor Abbott has called Gina Hinojosa to concede in Texas. Silver had Hinojosa at 34% to win that sear.

The waiting, as Tom Petty put it, is the hardest part. Not much action lately.

Having said that, NBC News is doing a projection of the ultimate House count, and they’re currently at 248. That would appear to be roughly an 80th percentile result relative to Silver’s model, which ended at a median of 241.

North Carolina is turning into a massive tire fire for the Republicans. They came into the cycle with a 10-4 House edge, and passed a gerrymander that was intended to flip the 1st, getting them to 11-3. They’re losing the 1st, which as noted earlier was expected by Silver, and which was the most expensive House race in the country. Silver also had them at 85% to lose the 11th, on the other end of the state, which I believe was unaffected by the gerrymander; and they’ve lost it. But right now they’re at serious risk of the losing the 6th (a 2% chance per Silver’s model). the 9th (12% chance), the 13th (10% chance), and the 14th (4%).

I talked earlier about the Kentucky 6th, which Silver thought was a pure toss-up. At that time the Democrat Dembo was several points behind, but the NYTimes model thought he would win by less than a point. He has now won, 53-43. It is also looking like Ford is going to beat Spartz in the Indiana 5th, now being ahead 51.7% to 48.3%.

Coming closer to home, Cooke is ahead of Van Orden 53-45 in the Wisconsin 3rd with two-thirds of the vote in. No significant votes totals from Minnesota yet.