At 12:30am my time, El-Sayed came out to give a victory speech, even though the race remained uncalled at that point; I stayed up to watch, then went to bed. Sometime while I slept, the race was called for him, making the Senate score 54-44 with just Mississippi and Alaska left. Alaska is going to take a while longer to even count the first-preference votes, and then there’s ranked choice reallocations to worry about; it may be two weeks before we have clarity there.

Very little Mississippi vote has been reported in the last several hours; Colom’s margin currently stands at 43 votes, compared with 28 in my last post. The election may well depend on provisional ballots. There is, apparently, no mechanism whatsoever under Mississippi law for a recount in a Senate race.

Per NBC News, the current score in the House is 231-144, and their projected score is now up to 258-179. Among the uncalled races is the Minnesota 1st, where overnight the Democrat Johnson declared victory; right now he is ahead of Finstad by 321 votes. Another very close uncalled race is the Maine 2nd, the red-leaning seat currently held by moderate Democrat Jared Golden, who did not run again. Right now the Democrat, Matthew Dunlap, leads by 707 votes over controversial former Republican governor Paul LePage. Out in the Colorado 4th, controversial Republican Representative Lauren Boebert is trailing by 1.5% in an uncalled race.

The overall national picture looks to be something like 56-43 for the Democrats. North Carolina continues to surprise. NBC News has already called 9 of the 14 races there for the Democrats — only 4 of which were previously held by Democrats, and 1 of which was supposed to vanish due to gerrymandering — with 3 races still uncalled.

State-level results have been quite strong for the Democrats, as I’m sure I’ll discuss at greater length in the coming days. Recall that in the 2024 cycle there were 7 major battleground states, all of which went to Trump in the end. In 2028 all 7 of those states will have Democratic Governors, thanks to pickups in not only Ohio (Acton) and Georgia (Bottoms) as discussed last night but also Nevada (Ford), as well as successful re-elections in Arizona (Hobbs) and Pennsylvania (Shapiro), and successful holds of open seats in Michigan (Benson) and Wisconsin (Crowley).

Unexpectedly, I think this can be my last post of the night and I can head to bed soon. The major outlines of the night are known; it was, indeed, the blue tsunami.

The current score in the House per the NYTimes is only 204-123, but their expectation for the final House margin is a staggering 256-179. That looks to be something like a 90th percentile result from Silver’s model.

With Maine having been called since I last posted, the current score in the Senate is 53-41. Michigan is looking excellent for El-Sayed; he is currently ahead 50.6% to 47.4% with two-thirds of the vote in, but much of the outstanding vote is from Wayne County. I fully imagine this race will be called in the very early morning hours.

While I was writing this post, Colom took a 28-vote lead in the Mississippi Senate race. Remarkable. The NYTimes needle has Hyde-Smith’s chances of winning back down to only 70%. A Black independent candidate, Pinkins, has 2.1% of the vote.

It took a while for the urban vote here in Minnesota to come in, but a few minutes ago the Senate race was called for Flanagan over Tafoya. There is also reporting just now from Maine that Collins has called Jackson to concede.

So, we’re still waiting on Michigan and Mississippi and Nebraska and Montana and Alaska, but Maine would give the Democrats 53 without any of those. I still think El-Sayed and Peltola will come through, making the final score 55-45. But we shall see.

Here in Minnesota, Klobuchar has also won the governor’s race. In our district, the 2nd, Democrat Matt Little is comfortably ahead 60-40 with three-quarters of the vote in. Down in the 1st, right now the incumbent Finstad is narrowly ahead of the Democrat Johnson, 50.4% to 49.5%.

Calls have come in recent minutes in the Senate races in both Kansas and Iowa. That means that, even with Maine and Michigan (and Minnesota) still uncalled, and the polls not yet closed in Alaska, the Democrats can count to 51 in the Senate.

Nebraska and Mississippi also remain uncalled at this point, but both are expected to go Republican. The independent Osborn is still ahead of Ricketts by about 3 points with more than half of the vote in, but the NYTimes model thinks this is an illusion and Ricketts will win handily. Down south, Hyde-Smith is ahead of Colom by about 2 points with more than 90% of the vote in, and the NYTimes model thinks she is over 90% to pull it out.

In the last few minutes, the Senate races in both Texas and Ohio have been called for the Democrats. One imagines Kansas will be the next call, with Hamilton currently ahead 52.2% to 44.8% on 92% of the vote.

There is also reporting that Governor Abbott has called Gina Hinojosa to concede in Texas. Silver had Hinojosa at 34% to win that sear.

The waiting, as Tom Petty put it, is the hardest part. Not much action lately.

Having said that, NBC News is doing a projection of the ultimate House count, and they’re currently at 248. That would appear to be roughly an 80th percentile result relative to Silver’s model, which ended at a median of 241.

North Carolina is turning into a massive tire fire for the Republicans. They came into the cycle with a 10-4 House edge, and passed a gerrymander that was intended to flip the 1st, getting them to 11-3. They’re losing the 1st, which as noted earlier was expected by Silver, and which was the most expensive House race in the country. Silver also had them at 85% to lose the 11th, on the other end of the state, which I believe was unaffected by the gerrymander; and they’ve lost it. But right now they’re at serious risk of the losing the 6th (a 2% chance per Silver’s model). the 9th (12% chance), the 13th (10% chance), and the 14th (4%).

I talked earlier about the Kentucky 6th, which Silver thought was a pure toss-up. At that time the Democrat Dembo was several points behind, but the NYTimes model thought he would win by less than a point. He has now won, 53-43. It is also looking like Ford is going to beat Spartz in the Indiana 5th, now being ahead 51.7% to 48.3%.

Coming closer to home, Cooke is ahead of Van Orden 53-45 in the Wisconsin 3rd with two-thirds of the vote in. No significant votes totals from Minnesota yet.

In the last half-hour we’ve had calls in two southern gubernatorial races. Donalds, who Silver’s model had as a 78% favorite in Florida, has won and is currently leading 50.1% to 48.6% over Jolly. But across the border in Georgia, Bottoms has won over Jackson; Silver’s model had her as a 70% favorite.

NBC News has called South Carolina for Andrews. Remarkable.

Way too early to count chickens, but I’m thinking 55 may be the number for the Democrats in the Senate? They are defending 47, which includes Michigan; it’s looking like they will hold them all. North Carolina is 48. South Carolina, Ohio, Texas, and Kansas would be 52. Add three of Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Nebraska and that makes 55.

And there’s one more to consider… A lot of pundits have been talking about Mississippi, which I’ve been ignoring since Silver’s model had it at only 4% for the Democratic challenger, Scott Colom. Right now he’s behind Senator Hyde-Smith, 51.6% to 46.3%, with about half of the vote in; however, the NYTimes model thinks the race is a toss-up.

A Florida district that had been gerrymandered to produce a Republican pickup, the 22nd, has been called for Democrat Pia Dandiya. Silver’s model had this at 72% for the Democrats.

Andrews is up 52-46 in South Carolina with three-quarters of the vote in; the NYTimes model thinks Andrews is about 95% to win.

Talarico is up 60-39 in Texas with half the vote in. NYTimes model thinks Talarico is about 90% to win. Hinojosa is running about 4 points behind Talarico in her gubernatorial race against Abbott, so that’s going to be a lot tighter but it is still on the table for a Democratic win.

Brown is up 50-45 in Ohio with a little more than half of the vote in; the NYTimes now has him at about 75% to win. Acton is running ahead of Brown in her gubernatorial race against Ramaswamy, which also has a Libertarian candidate attracting 3% of the vote.

Only 15% of the vote is in yet in Michigan; El-Sayed is ahead and the NYTimes makes him at about 80% to win.

Finally, Hamilton is up 60-39 in Kansas with a little less than half the vote in, and the NYTimes model has him at about 65% to win.

Not much news from Maine yet.

Some recent Senate calls: Moody holds on in Florida (leading 50.8% to 48.0% with almost all the vote in); Pappas keeps New Hampshire for the Democrats (up 59-39 with one-third of the vote in) and becomes the first out gay male Senator; and several uncompetitive blue states stay Democratic (DE, IL, MA, NJ, RI).

Over in the country’s most expensive House race, the North Carolina 1st, the incumbent Democrat that Republicans were attempting to gerrymander out of office, Davis, is ahead 51-46 with a little more than half the vote in. NYTimes thinks Davis will win by 4 points.

The NYTimes’ expected margin for Spartz in the Indiana 5th has shrunk to about 1%, so that one remains in play as a flip for the Democrats.

South Carolina is still looking good. On to talking about Texas, Ohio, and Michigan, where votes have been trickling in.

We officially have a Senate flip, with a call of the North Carolina race for Cooper. He’s up 65-33 with half of the vote in.

The NYTimes model now has Andrews as 93% to win South Carolina, which would be big news. Silver’s final model had her at 33% to win. She’s ahead 51.5% to 46.8% with two-fifths of the vote in.

Although the big-ticket races in Florida are looking like close misses for the Democrats, two Florida Democratic incumbents that the Republicans had hoped to unseat have won re-election: Moskowitz in the 25th (Silver had him as 77% to win), and Cantor in the 14th (Silver had her as 85% to win). An even more vulnerable incumbent, Soto in the 9th, is currently up 50.2% to 49.8% and is seen by the NYTimes as a slight favorite to hold on; Silver had him as only 42% to win.