Despite finishing 2nd in the Iowa caucuses, DeSantis — who, a year ago, seemed like a very strong contender for the Republican nomination — dropped out two days before the New Hampshire primary, endorsing Trump.

That reduced the Republican field to a head-to-head matchup between Trump and Haley. Trump won New Hampshire, with 54%, versus 43% for Haley and 3% for DeSantis and other candidates.

The next state primary on which both Trump and Haley are on the ballot will be South Carolina, which of course is Haley’s home state. One could imagine a path where Haley wins South Carolina and parlays that momentum into a strong Super Tuesday performance, particularly as Trump’s legal woes continue. After all, Biden lost both Iowa and New Hampshire in 2020, before his win in South Carolina propelled him to the nomination. Might Haley follow the Biden playbook?

However, the general consensus is that this is very unlikely to happen. For one, the political apparatus of South Carolina has already endorsed Trump, including most recently Senator Scott, even though he owed his original Senate appointment to then-Governor Haley. For another, the South Carolina primary electorate is expected to more closely resemble Iowa than New Hampshire, where Haley’s performance was propped up by independent voters (who are allowed to same-day register for the Republican primary, then immediately re-register as independent on their way out the door).

As such, while Haley remains defiant that the race will continue to South Carolina and beyond, the RNC Chair is already calling for Haley to drop out so that the party can unify behind Trump.

It has been a quiet week so far on the legal front, with no news out of either Judge Engeron or the D.C. Circuit. The Carroll I trial had been expected to wrap up on Monday, but between a juror’s illness and logistical issues around the New Hampshire primary, there was a three-day delay. Trump testified today, very briefly. Closing arguments will be tomorrow, and it is possible the jury will return a swift verdict before the weekend.

With regards to the SCOTUS 14th Amendment case, today Yale law professor Bruce Ackerman published an op-ed in Politico in which he not only argued that SCOTUS should rule that Trump is ineligible, but also considered some broader implications of such a ruling – and not just on the Republican side of the political spectrum. If Trump were declared ineligible, might Biden reconsider his decision to run for re-election, given his previous statement that he might not be running if not for Trump?

Ackerman argues that the SCOTUS ruling should include an unprecedented injunction, resetting the 2024 electoral landscape:

“To allow new contenders from both parties to make their case to the voters, the justices should issue an injunction postponing Super Tuesday to early May — and provide potential candidates with a six-week opportunity to satisfy state ballot requirements. The Republican convention meets in the middle of July and Democrats will gather for their convention in August. That means the states will still have two months to hold their primaries in May and June, and the candidates will have plenty of time to campaign beforehand.“