Nate Silver has just released the first version of his electoral model for the Harris-Trump matchup. At the time he suspended his Biden-Trump model upon Biden’s exit from the race, his model had Biden’s chances of winning the electoral college at 27%, although Silver felt that estimate was optimistic because it implicitly presumed that Biden would run an average campaign from then forward and it seemed clear to him that Biden’s age would prevent him from being able to do that.

With Harris in the driver’s seat, his model currently has her chances at 38%, even though it sees her as a slight favorite in the popular vote (47.7% to 47.1%). Given the slight differences in demographic support between Harris and Biden, Silver now thinks the Republicans’ inherent advantage in the electoral college is more like 2.5% running against Harris, as opposed to 2.0% running against Biden.

Silver notes that there is a lack of high-quality state-level polling of the Harris-Trump matchup in the key swing states, and as such I wouldn’t place a lot of weight on his model quite yet. However it does line up with the conventional wisdom that the switch from Biden to Harris has been beneficial for the Democrats but the race remains tight going into the DNC.

Harris has yet to tip her hand on when to expect her announcement of a Vice-Presidential candidate, but one imagines it will occur within the next week. Speculation has now focused on just three names: Kelly, Shapiro, and Walz. Walz’s longshot candidacy has gained momentum in recent days thanks to an increase in his public profile from having recently said “these guys are just weird” in reference to the Trump-Vance ticket. Personally I think his background would be a tremendous complement to Harris: a high school teacher and football coach who served 24 years in the National Guard, unexpectedly won a House seat in a rural district in the 2006 Democratic wave midterm election against a Republican incumbent who had won 60% of the vote two years earlier, and since has become a very successful governor in a state that is more purple in its state-level politics than it is federally.

Today was the opening ceremonies of the 2024 Summer Olympics, from Paris. C’est magnifique; vraiment. I would like to think that I will do next to no political blogging over the coming two weeks, as I juggle work with watching the Olympics, but we’ll see what events hold.

This morning President Obama and his wife became the last members of the Democratic political establishment to endorse Vice-President Harris for President. On Sunday evening Obama had put out a release commending Biden and his decision to leave the race, but he did not mention Harris at all and expressed “confidence that the leaders of our party will be able to create a process from which an outstanding nominee emerges.” Ever since there has been all kinds of chatter about why Obama hadn’t endorsed Harris, from rumors that he would save his endorsement for the convention stage, to speculation in right-leaning newspapers that he was really trying to rig things behind the scenes in favor of Senator Kelly (?) and Biden’s quick endorsement of Harris was intended as a snub to Obama, to the more mundane suggestion that he simply didn’t want to put his thumb on the scales.

A new New York Times nationwide poll, conducted in its entirety after Sunday, indicated that an astonishing 87% of Americans (91% of Democrats, 85% of Republicans, 86% of independents) agreed with Biden’s decision to leave the race.

In other news, yesterday the state of New York filed its brief in response to Trump’s post-trial motions to Judge Merchan that the guilty verdict in New York v. Trump should be thrown out in light of the SCOTUS decision in Trump v. U.S. Merchan had previously indicated he wouldn’t rule on the motions until early September.

Also, the 11th Circuit set a schedule for Special Counsel Smith’s impending appeal of Judge Cannon’s motion dismissing the Mar-a-Lago documents case that would suggest oral arguments are unlikely to occur before the election. I find myself wondering what would happen, procedurally, if Trump wins and then the 11th Circuit rules in favor of the government before Trump takes office. Possibly Trump would appeal to SCOTUS, and then on appeal the Trump DOJ would change its position and refuse to defend the appellate decision that the DOJ had won below, which would likely lead to SCOTUS appointing an amicus to argue in favor of the appellate court’s decision. However, perhaps it is possible for the Trump DOJ to instead dismiss the underlying indictment in the Mar-a-Lago documents case immediately, rather than waiting for the appeal to resolve itself and then dismiss the indictment if & when the mandate returns to the district court level. I guess the path chosen might depend on how badly the Trump DOJ, on general principles as opposed to specific instances, wanted to set a torch to the special counsel concept.

Finally, I wanted to point out that tomorrow is the 20th anniversary of what I still consider to be the greatest political moment of my adult life: State Senator Obama’s keynote speech at the 2004 DNC. “This year, in this election, we are called to reaffirm our values and commitments, to hold them against a hard reality and see how we are measuring up, to the legacy of our forbearers, and the promise of future generations. … Do we participate in a politics of cynicism or a politics of hope?” We’ll find out in about 100 days.

Earlier tonight the nation finally heard directly from President Biden, whose decision not to run for re-election was announced via social media three days earlier and who had not subsequently made any public appearances due to his latest bout with COVID. He delivered a poignant speech defending both his presidency’s accomplishments and his belated decision to pass the torch to a new generation from the Oval Office. It was only the 4th Oval Office address of his presidency, albeit the second in recent days, having given a brief address after the assassination attempt.

Today the DNC Rules Committee officially adopted rules governing the revamped 2024 presidential nomination process. Theoretically, candidates can file by July 27th to be considered, but in doing so would need to demonstrate support from at least 300 delegates, no more than 50 of whom can be from any one state delegation. As a practical matter, given how the previous 72 hours have gone it appears virtually certain that Harris will be the only qualified candidate. Assuming that holds, virtual voting to anoint Harris would commence on August 1st. The expectation is that Harris would then choose her vice-presidential candidate prior to August 7th, so as to leave no ambiguity about whether the ballot access deadlines in Ohio or any other state have been met.

Harris has named Eric Holder, who had been Obama’s attorney general, to lead an abbreviated vice-presidential vetting process. Reporting indicates that the five people being vetted are Governors Cooper, Shapiro, Walz, and Whitmer, and Senator Kelly.

In other news, yesterday Senator Menendez defied my expectations and filed his resignation letter, indicating he will step down on August 20th. Governor Murphy is expected to name an interim replacement, which appears unlikely to be Representative Kim, the Democratic nominee for this fall’s election (recalling that Kim’s main opponent in the primary had been Murphy’s wife).

And in the humor department, today New York filed its brief with SCOTUS opposing a motion that Missouri filed earlier this month on the Court’s original jurisdiction docket (for disputes between sovereign states), in which Missouri sought a stay until after the election of both the sentencing in New York v. Trump and the remaining gag order conditions on Trump. Missouri’s political stunt involving the original jurisdiction docket is reminiscent of something that Texas tried, without success, back in December 2020. Maybe it’s an encouraging sign that this time only 4 states signed on as amici in support of Missouri.

Less than 36 hours after the Harris presidential campaign commenced, the AP just announced that it believes Harris has now secured the support of a majority of the delegates at next month’s DNC, “based on interviews with individual delegates, as well public statements from delegates and state parties announcing who they now support after Biden’s exit.”

With the party having quickly coalesced behind Harris, the party announced today that plans are back on to do a virtual roll call by August 7th in order to formally nominate Harris long before the start of the DNC itself.

The newly rebranded Harris campaign raised $81 million from donors in the first 24 hours after Biden’s exit, which is purportedly a single-day record for any U.S. politician.

In other news, today Trump filed his appeal of Judge Engoron’s February decision in the Trump Org state civil fraud case; oral arguments are expected in the fall.

Well, we got our July Surprise, at last.

My previous post was published around 10am this morning, and in it I noted an apparent lack of developments over the prior 48 hours in resolving the crisis over the Democratic presidential ticket. About three hours later, Biden released a letter via social media indicating that he was dropping out of the 2024 race, while remaining President for the remainder of his term. (The Biden contract on PredictIt immediately went from $0.32 to the minimum value of $0.01, and has since stayed there.) A few minutes after that, he supplemented that letter with a social media post offering his “full support and endorsement” to Vice-President Harris.

My wife and daughter and I were about an hour into the drive from Chicago to Minnesota when the news broke, which meant that we were well-positioned to simply listen to the situation develop over the next several hours. As I’m writing this post, shortly before heading to bed on the same day, it seems extremely likely that Harris will assume the Democratic nomination with little or no opposition. Anyone I can think of who would be a credible alternative candidate to Harris has already endorsed her within the first 8 hours of her candidacy. And the previous “Biden for President” campaign finance committee has already been renamed “Harris for President,” with the prevailing wisdom being that Harris (and only Harris) has the unfettered right to access monies previously donated for the Biden-Harris general election campaign.

I have been critical of Biden for not dropping out two weeks ago. However the way things have played out, maybe this timing worked out for the best. With a weakened Biden remaining in the race, Trump went all in on remaking the Republican party in his image, selecting as his VP candidate an ideologically aligned potential successor. Going with Vance rather than with somebody who could help shore up Trump’s electoral weaknesses was the move of a candidate who wasn’t worried about losing. If Biden had made his move earlier, perhaps Trump would have instead made a different and potentially more productive VP choice, rather than doubling down on the MAGA lane.

Stepping back for a second, it is hard to overstate how unprecedented this all is. The last first-term President to disavow any interest in running for a second term was, apparently, Polk way back in 1848. Truman dropped out in 1952 after losing New Hampshire; LBJ dropped out in 1968 after almost losing New Hampshire to Eugene McCarthy, a sign of weakness which then prompted RFK to enter the race. There’s no precedent for a candidate to have faced only token opposition throughout the primaries, only to then withdraw after their nomination was assured albeit not yet official. That means that, for the first time in the modern era where Presidential primaries have taken primacy over smoke-filled rooms, we will have a major-party candidate who did not actually run in any primaries.

One of the next things to watch will be who Harris selects as her vice-presidential candidate, and when & how that selection is made. There is an emerging consensus that the appropriate partner for a biracial Californian woman on the top of the ticket will be a straight (sorry Secretary Buttigieg) white (sorry Governor Moore) male (sorry Governor Whitmer) from a less liberal state (sorry Governor Newsom, although the 12th Amendment also sends its regards). That train of thought leads to a shortlist of Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro, North Carolina Governor Cooper, Kentucky Governor Beasher, and Minnesota Governor Walz. When a friend had asked me two weeks ago what I thought a putative Presidential nominee Harris ought to do for VP, my top choice was Shapiro, followed by Walz. Another name being bandied about is Senator Kelly of Arizona, although I am leery about the wisdom of potentially creating a Senate vacancy in a swing state.

To quote something that pundit and former Republican political strategist Steve Schmidt had written just this morning: “The 2024 campaign for president exists in a netherworld between being already lost and not yet begun.” Well, that core uncertainty has been resolved, and the cat is alive. We now face a whole host of new uncertainties: how will Harris perform on the trail, how effectively will the party unite behind her, will Democratic fundraising rebound (although early signs there are promising), will there even be any Trump-Harris debates, what will polling tell us and when. The next month will surely be very interesting as both parties adjust to the new reality.

But it’s a new dawn, a new day, and I’m feeling good.

And the hits keep on coming… Yesterday afternoon it was announced that President Biden had tested positive for COVID (for the 3rd time) and cancelled a campaign event in order to return to Delaware and self-isolate.

Looking at the PredictIt contract, Biden had been losing a little ground during the day yesterday, drifting back down to a trading range just north of $0.50. Then the COVID news comes out, and he lost ground in heavy trading, settling in overnight just south of $0.40.

But now in the last 2 hours, on heavy trading the Biden contract is collapsing further. As I write this Biden is down to $0.22, which I think is a new low; Harris is up to $0.61.

I’m not entirely sure what news is driving the most recent price movements, though? Yesterday, prior to the COVID news, Rep. Schiff (also the Democratic nominee for the open Senate seat in California) became the most prominent legislator to publicly join the “dump Biden” camp. I’m not aware of any specific similar announcements so far today. But with the RNC coming to an end tonight, it would be an interesting time to try and steal some of Trump’s thunder by having Biden change his stance on remaining in the race.

Vance gave his acceptance speech last night, which seems to have been pretty well received. I watched several seconds of it, catching the following phrase: “We need a leader who’s not in the pocket of big business, but answers to the working man, union and nonunion alike. A leader who won’t sell out to multinational corporations…” Pretty strange stuff to hear at a Republican convention.

A strange moment from yesterday’s RNC: One of the day’s convention speakers had woken up that very morning inside federal prison. That would be Peter Navarro, a former top economic advisor to Trump who just yesterday completed his four-month prison sentence for contempt of Congress, specifically in refusing to comply with a subpoena from the Jan 6th Committee.

Today will be day 3 of the RNC in Milwaukee. I haven’t watched any of it, choosing instead last night to watch baseball’s All-Star Game.

It does seem particularly clear after Vance’s nomination, however, that the break between today’s Republican Party and the party of the recent past is now complete. McConnell was booed on Monday; the president of the Teamsters union was an RNC speaker yesterday, although his union has not yet endorsed either candidate; and none of President Bush, Vice-President Pence, Vice-President Cheney, Vice-President Quayle, and former Presidential nominee Romney are attending the RNC. The Trump-Vance Republican party is unabashedly isolationist, protectionist, populist, and anti-immigration, in addition to the more traditional Republican virtues of being anti-taxation, anti-regulation, pro-gun, and anti-abortion.

Yesterday Senator Menendez was convicted on all counts in his federal corruption trial, after 12 hours of jury deliberation. Majority Leader Schumer has called on Menendez to resign; we’ll see. Somewhat more likely is that the Senate would need to vote to expel him, and there hasn’t been a successful expulsion vote since the Civil War. Perhaps the most likely outcome is that he quietly serves out the rest of his term. It is equally unclear whether Menendez will remain on this fall’s Senate ballot as an independent, or whether he will withdraw his candidacy.

One side effect of Saturday evening’s assassination attempt is that the ensuing changes in political fortunes appear to have taken the wind of out of the sails of the “dump Biden” movement within the Democratic party. The Biden contract on PredictIt has been hovering around the $0.70 mark ever since the assassination attempt, and there is reporting that the DNC will seek to install Biden as nominee in the near future via a virtual roll call (a move that was already in the works in order to ensure that the Democrats would make the Presidential ballot in Ohio).

In other market-related news, DJT stock had spent most of last week trading stably around the $30 mark, but spiked up about 50% when the markets opened on Monday morning, presumably as a sign of support for Trump among his fans for surviving the assassination attempt. It has since retreated down to around $37, which still makes it a $7 billion market cap company.

And as for the would-be assassin, “investigators are struck by the lack of leads they’re finding about Crooks’ mindset and possible motives,” per CNN.

Three significant things have happened (so far!) today, and I’ll list them in reverse order of how unexpected they were.

The first is that, on the opening day of the RNC, the Republican party formally nominated Trump for President. We’ve seen this train coming down the tracks for a long time, so it’s no longer surprising in an immediate sense.

But stepping back: one of the two major parties has, with little controversy within the party, nominated (a) a former President (this hasn’t happened since Cleveland in 1892, although T. Roosevelt ran on a third-party platform in 1912 after his own party wouldn’t nominate him), who (b) is widely considered by historians to have been one of the very worst Presidents in history, and who since leaving office has (c) been convicted of state felonies arising out of conduct in his original Presidential election campaign, (d) been indicted at the both the federal and state level for felonies relating to conduct in his re-election campaign, (e) been indicted for federal crimes relating to alleged non-compliance with the Presidential Records Act and alleged obstruction with the investigation into those allegations, (f) been assessed an 8-digit monetary fine for defamation relating to his having committed sexual assault, and (g) been assessed a 9-digit monetary fine relating to his business. Regardless of how one feels about Trump, that is a truly astonishing litany.

The second is that Trump announced that his Vice-Presidential candidate will be Ohio Senator J.D. Vance. Vance, a 39-year-old white male, was an ex-Marine and Yale Law graduate who came to prominence in 2016 when his memoir “Hillbilly Elegy” because a surprise bestseller. He only turned to politics in 2022, running in the Republican primary to replace the retiring Senator Portman. He was running 5th in the polls when Trump endorsed him, less than three weeks before the primary. He won comfortably with 32% of the vote, then beat Democratic Representative Tim Ryan 53-47. And now, less than two years later, he is poised to become the youngest VP since Nixon (if inaugurated, Vance will be about four months older than Nixon was when he assumed the #2 job in 1953 at the age of 40). Nixon, like Vance, was only two years into his first Senate term when nominated, but at least he had spent 4 years in the House prior to that.

I’m old enough to remember when the Republican Party attacked Senator Obama for being too inexperienced, running for President in the fourth year of his freshman term in the U.S. Senate, after having previously served 8 years in the Illinois Senate. Today’s Republican Party is nominating a ticket whose cumulative time spent in elected politics, at any level, is less than 6 years.

The third is that Judge Cannon issued a bombshell ruling today in U.S. v. Trump (Florida edition), the Mar-A-Lago documents case: She dismissed the indictment on the grounds that Special Counsel Smith was not appointed in a manner consistent with the Appointments Clause of the U.S. Constitution and therefore lacks the ability to prosecute anybody.

As I had previously noted, this argument had been raised at a couple different phases of the other U.S. v. Trump case, largely by Federalist Society co-chair Steven Calabresi, on occasion by pulling the strings behind former Attorney General Meese as an amicus. Two weeks ago, when SCOTUS finally ruled in Trump v. U.S., Justice Thomas had authored a solo concurrence expressing sympathy for this argument. At the very end of its February opinion in that case, the D.C. Circuit declined in a footnote to entertain this argument on the grounds that it had not been raised at the District Court level. However down in Florida, Judge Cannon had in June taken the unusual step of holding a hearing with witness testimony from amici on both sides about this Appointments Clause issue.

One imagines the government will appeal forthwith to the 11th Circuit, but we shall see.

As if this Presidential election needed more drama…

Yesterday evening there was an assassination attempt on Trump, at one of his election rallies in Pennsylvania’s 16th district, a safe Republican seat (having voted Trump 58-40 in 2020) north of Pittsburgh. A bullet fired from a rooftop several hundred feet away pierced Trump’s right ear, drawing blood; however Trump was safely escorted off-stage and is reportedly fine. The New York Times has an incredible picture that appears to show one of the bullets streaking past Trump’s head.

The would-be assassin did reportedly kill one rally attendee, before himself being killed at the scene. This morning the shooter’s identity has been announced as Thomas Matthew Crooks, a 20-year-old white male and registered Republican with no criminal record who lived about an hour away from the rally site. As of this writing, nothing is known of Crooks’ motive.

The RNC is expected to commence as scheduled in Milwaukee tomorrow.