Election 2024: Day -110

Today will be day 3 of the RNC in Milwaukee. I haven’t watched any of it, choosing instead last night to watch baseball’s All-Star Game.

It does seem particularly clear after Vance’s nomination, however, that the break between today’s Republican Party and the party of the recent past is now complete. McConnell was booed on Monday; the president of the Teamsters union was an RNC speaker yesterday, although his union has not yet endorsed either candidate; and none of President Bush, Vice-President Pence, Vice-President Cheney, Vice-President Quayle, and former Presidential nominee Romney are attending the RNC. The Trump-Vance Republican party is unabashedly isolationist, protectionist, populist, and anti-immigration, in addition to the more traditional Republican virtues of being anti-taxation, anti-regulation, pro-gun, and anti-abortion.

Yesterday Senator Menendez was convicted on all counts in his federal corruption trial, after 12 hours of jury deliberation. Majority Leader Schumer has called on Menendez to resign; we’ll see. Somewhat more likely is that the Senate would need to vote to expel him, and there hasn’t been a successful expulsion vote since the Civil War. Perhaps the most likely outcome is that he quietly serves out the rest of his term. It is equally unclear whether Menendez will remain on this fall’s Senate ballot as an independent, or whether he will withdraw his candidacy.

One side effect of Saturday evening’s assassination attempt is that the ensuing changes in political fortunes appear to have taken the wind of out of the sails of the “dump Biden” movement within the Democratic party. The Biden contract on PredictIt has been hovering around the $0.70 mark ever since the assassination attempt, and there is reporting that the DNC will seek to install Biden as nominee in the near future via a virtual roll call (a move that was already in the works in order to ensure that the Democrats would make the Presidential ballot in Ohio).

In other market-related news, DJT stock had spent most of last week trading stably around the $30 mark, but spiked up about 50% when the markets opened on Monday morning, presumably as a sign of support for Trump among his fans for surviving the assassination attempt. It has since retreated down to around $37, which still makes it a $7 billion market cap company.

And as for the would-be assassin, “investigators are struck by the lack of leads they’re finding about Crooks’ mindset and possible motives,” per CNN.