Some hijinks may be afoot in Nebraska, raising the possibility that a small number of state legislators could tip the scales on the 2024 presidential election before the ballots are cast.

Nebraska is of course one of only two states, the other being Maine, who award 1 electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district, plus 2 to the state-wide winner. Nebraska’s current practice started in 1992, and there have since been two occasions – 2008 and 2020 – where the so-called “Blue Dot” of Omaha awarded its single vote to the Democratic candidate. There was discussion back in April that Republicans sought to change that practice and revert to the more common practice of awarding all electoral votes on a statewide basis; however, that would have required a two-thirds majority of the (unicameral) Nebraska legislature, and that level of support for the change did not exist.

Well, according to new reporting from the Washington Post and New York Times, Trump is making a renewed push to get Nebraska to change its rules in time for this fall’s election. As I recently discussed, there is a very plausible electoral map where Harris wins 270-268 if Nebraska allocates its votes the way it currently does, but where Trump would win the election (after the House votes state-by-state to resolve a 269-269 tie) if Nebraska changes its approach. The key legislative holdout at this point is State Senator Mike McDonnell, a former Democrat who switched parties earlier this year over reproductive and transgender rights; he is term-limited but may be seeking to run for mayor of Omaha next year. If McDonnell can be convinced to switch his position, two other holdouts may follow in which case the Republicans may have the votes; and they may be able to make this change, via a special legislative session, any time up until the day before election day.

When Nebraska was considering this in the spring, the conventional wisdom was that if it were to make the change, then the Democrats controlling the Maine state government would enact the same change. This would preserve balance in close-fought elections, trading Omaha’s Democratic-leaning electoral vote with the Republican-leaning electoral vote in Northern Maine. However, by delaying the Republicans may have gained the upper hand. While Maine could (unlike Nebraska) apparently pass this change with simple majorities in both houses, such a bill would not take effect until 90 days after passage; in order to enact a bill that would take immediate effect, there would need to be two-thirds majorities in both houses, and the Maine Democrats are not believed to have the necessary votes for that.

But this week’s potential electoral hijinks are not limited to Nebraska. There has been a lot of concern in certain circles lately about the Georgia Election Board, the membership of which has seen significant turnover this year with the new majority seen as pro-Trump. In the latest of several potentially disruptive rules changes made by the Board, this week they voted to require an immediate hand count of the number of ballots, to verify that the total is consistent with the results of the machine count and resolve any inconsistencies that may be found. Critics of the proposal say that it is impractical in all but the smallest counties, as well as unlawful.

Silver’s model has Harris’s odds of winning up to 51% for the first time since the DNC ended, with an expected national popular vote margin of 50.6% to 48.3%. Right now NV (52.6%), PA (53.7%), WI (55.4%), and MI (61.8%) are all leaning slightly to Harris, while Trump is slightly favored in NC (61.7%), GA (64.1%), and AZ (64.5%).

This week two different groups filed amicus briefs with the 11th Circuit in support of the government’s appeal of Judge Cannon’s dismissal of the charges in U.S. v. Trump (Florida edition). One brief came from CREW, who was responsible for bringing the Colorado case that led to this spring’s SCOTUS decision in Trump v. Anderson; the other came from a newer group called State Democracy Defenders Action, whose board members include George Conway. Both the CREW and SDDA briefs urge the 11th Circuit, in addition to overturning Cannon’s ruling, to exercise its supervisory authority to re-assign the case to a judge other than Cannon. Special Counsel Smith did not take that position in the government’s brief, although many pundits had suggested he ought to.

Finally, yesterday the lock-up period on Trump’s majority holdings of TMTG expired, although there’s no indication that he sold any stock and he has said he won’t. DJT’s stock price was down 26% for the week, closing yesterday at a new low of $13.55; it has been the worst-performing stock in the Russell 1000 since Aug 5th, losing about half its value in that time.