Over the weekend, there was what is commonly being called an “apparent assassination attempt” on Trump, at his golf course in West Palm Beach FL. The would-be assassin allegedly spent 12 hours hidden in shrubbery on the perimeter of Trump’s course, only for his gun barrel to be spotted by the Secret Service when Trump was one hole away from reaching the gunman’s position. The alleged individual involved is a white male in his late 50s with a lengthy criminal record, and who in 2020 had posted on social media that he’d voted for Trump in 2016 but had become disillusioned.

Prior to this event, it was starting to look as through Harris was seeing a post-debate bump in the polls. Having said that, Nate Silver noted today that there have not been many high-quality, post-debate, state-level polls released yet. As a result his model, which at this writing gives Harris a 44% chance of winning the electoral college, may not yet fully reflect her strong debate performance. I’ll wait another week or two before I start paying too much attention again to Silver’s model.

Silver did point out recently, in the wake of an Alaska poll showing Trump with only a 47-42 lead, that one can easily imagine an electoral map in which Harris holds a 268-267 lead without Alaska, making the 49th state the unexpected key to the election. (This involves Trump flipping both GA and PA relative to the 2020 map, while Harris holds on to AZ, MI, NV, and WI and does not flip NC.) Intriguingly, Alaska will be using ranked choice in the presidential election for the first time this year, and there are 8 names on its ballot, including RFK Jr.

Today Trump’s attorneys asked the 11th Circuit to extend, from September 25th to October 25th, the deadline for their reply brief in the government’s appeal of Judge Cannon’s dismissal of U.S. v. Trump (Florida edition). Special Counsel Smith is not expected to oppose the request. Even with the delay, it is plausible that oral arguments will be scheduled between the election and the inauguration.