It’s getting close enough to the election that I’ve now realized that all the “Day -NN” numbers used in previous blog posts were off by one – I should have been truncating up, not down, from the countdown clock that I’d been using to determine the title of each post. The election is two weeks from tomorrow, so today needs to be Day -15, not Day -14.

My enthusiasm for blogging about the election has waned recently, largely out of a feeling that there’s not really anything new to say. By all appearances, the election remains extremely tight and uncertain. Silver’s model has ticked a little back in Trump’s direction recently, with Harris’ chances now at only 47.0%, but we’re still talking about coin flip territory. The reality appears to be that there is not going to be any clear favorite going into Election Day. I still don’t understand how it can be true that this is where we’re at, but every indication is that it is indeed where we’re at. Better to save up my energy for blogging once the vote has started to be counted.

Four years ago, I had started my Election 2020 series of blog posts 5 days before the election. In hindsight things then did not look nearly as close or uncertain as they turned out to be, or as they appear to be now. That election took 4 days for the major media organizations to call the result of the Presidential election (and 10 days for the last states to be called), and 7 days to determine which party would be in control of the House. While I could be wrong, I suspect it will take longer to make both calls this year. And, of course, there’s the possibility of post-election shenanigans, as discussed in a recent Politico article entitled “The Very Real Scenario Where Trump Loses and Takes Power Anyway.”

One amusing piece of recent legal news: The federal public defenders representing the man accused of lying in wait outside Trump’s Florida golf course to assassinate Trump have filed a request that Judge Cannon recuse herself, on the grounds that her appointment by Trump, as well as her actions in U.S. vs. Trump (Florida edition) and Trump’s endorsement of those actions, together have created an appearance of impartiality towards Trump and hence against their client.