I woke up to discover than, around 4:30am Central, the AP called the election for Trump. While I slept he won both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, getting him to 277 EV. Michigan remains uncalled, as do Arizona and Nevada, as well as Maine. If current trends in the Western states continue, Trump is poised to have swept all 7 swing states. Which was certainly a plausible scenario, and one consistent with an electorate in which the national popular vote was evenly split rather than giving Harris a 2-point advantage.

More recently the AP has called the Montana Senate race for Sheehy over Tester. Right now things are looking promising for Baldwin to hold on in Wisconsin, and less promising for Casey in Pennsylvania. The Slotkin-Rogers race for the open seat in Michigan is very tight, as is Rosen’s re-election bid in Nevada; Gallego is ahead of Lake in Arizona. So 54 seats for Republicans sounds about right – a large enough majority that they can afford to lose Murkowski and Collins here and there.

Minnesota was called for Harris overnight although it was closer than one might have thought; right now she’s ahead 51.1 – 46.7. (Our precinct went 59-38 for Harris, compared with 54-45 Biden in 2020, but the nature of this precinct has been evolving rapidly in recent years due to new housing tracts.) Craig won re-election in the Minnesota 2nd more handily than one might have expected, and is currently ahead 55.6 – 42.1. She tacked pretty hard to the middle in her TV ad strategy, so much so that we took down the yard sign we’d had up for her, but she seems to have known what she was doing.

While Harris did win Omaha’s EV, it was by a smaller margin that most had expected, with the margin currently at 51.2 – 47.5. Her coattails do not appear to have been enough to drag Vargas to victory over Bacon; while the race remains uncalled the Democrat is currently behind, 48.6 – 51.4. Also uncalled as of yet is the Wisconsin 3rd, where Cooke is currently behind by the same margin. While there’s still a lot of vote to be counted, the Democrats’ failure to unseat Bacon and Van Orden would not bode well for their ability to retake the House.