Election 2024: Day 2, 4:30pm

Harris offered a concession speech about 24 hours ago, and earlier today Biden spoke publicly, reaffirming his commitment to a peaceful transition of power.

In the Senate, Wisconsin has been called for Baldwin (currently 49.4 – 48.5), and Michigan has been called for Slotkin (currently 48.6 – 48.3). An hour ago the AP called Pennsylvania for McCormick (currently 49.0 – 48.5), although not all outlets have followed suit. If you were to add the Libertarian candidate’s votes to McCormick and the Green candidate’s votes to Casey, Casey would have won.

McCormick puts the Republicans at 53, which is important as it allows them to lose Collins and Murkowski, and whoever the 3rd-least MAGA Republican Senator is at this point (quite unclear, with Romney’s retirement), and still win a vote thanks to VP-Elect Vance. (I am presuming that Ohio Governor DeWine will briskly appoint a Republican to replace Vance in the Senate.) 53 may be the final number, as Rosen has come back to take a 13K lead (47.7 – 46.7) in Nevada while Gallego is still up 50K in Arizona (50.0 – 48.0).

The current score in the House is Republicans 210-198; the Wisconsin 3rd has been called for Van Orden over Cooke, while the Nebraska 2nd remains uncalled although Bacon’s lead over Vargas remains close to 3 points. Right now the Republicans are leading in 13 of the uncalled races, so the Democrats’ hope of retaining the House is still alive but not looking great.

One of those 13 races is Alaska, where Republican ex-Rep. Begich is leading Democratic Rep. Peltola 49.5 – 45.4 with 76% of the vote in; however, Alaska is a ranked choice state, so if Begich can’t cross 50% then the third-party vote will need to get re-allocated, which is how Peltola had gotten herself elected in the first place. (Interestingly, a ballot referendum to repeal open primaries and ranked choice in Alaska has a narrow lead, despite having been outspent 100-to-1 by proponents of the current system.) Another is the California 47th, the district in which I went to high school. This was Katie Porter’s seat, but she gave it up in order to run for Senate, where she finished 3rd in the jungle primary; right now the Republican, Baugh, has a 50.2 – 49.8 lead over the Democrat, Min, with a lot of vote yet to count.