Election 2024: Day 5

Yesterday the AP called Nevada for Trump, giving him a complete sweep of the 7 swing states and making the final score 312-226.

In the end the election was considerably less close than either 2016 or 2020, even though on the day before each election 2024 was perceived to be the closest of the three races. To get from the 226 EV she actually won to 270+, Harris would have needed to take Wisconsin (losing by 0.9%), Michigan (losing by 1.1%), and Pennsylvania (losing by 2.1%). None of those races are as close as the three outcome-determinative close races Clinton lost in 2016 (the same three states) or the three outcome-determinative close races Trump lost in 2020 (AZ/GA/NV).

The House remains in limbo, with the score now 213-203 Republicans, and with the Republicans ahead in 9 of the remaining 19 uncalled races.

Over in the Senate, Nevada has been called for Rosen, leaving Arizona as the only uncalled race, where Gallego holds a 49.8 – 48.1 lead with 88% of the vote counted. As such it looks like 53 will be the final number. Trump has not yet weighted in on this week’s Senate leadership election, although he did note today that a precondition for his support would be a willingness to make recess appointments of acting Cabinet officials, and also a willingness to block the Democrats from pushing through any additional judicial appointments in the lame-duck session. It had been noted that, four years ago, the Republican Senate continued to push through additional judicial appointments in the lame-duck session, one of whom happened to be Judge Cannon.

And speaking of Judge Cannon: Special Counsel Smith was in the news in the latter half of the week, as he figures out how to bring closure to both flavors of U.S. v. Trump in a world where (a) longstanding DOJ policy forbids the prosecution of a sitting president, and (b) the president-elect has vowed to fire Smith early on day one, and then perhaps exile him. The precise path forward remains unclear, even if it is crystal clear that neither prosecution will proceed come January 20th. My hope is that Judge Chutkan still produces a ruling before then on the question of how the test outlined by SCOTUS in Trump v. U.S. applies to the facts of the Jan 6 indictment, and that the 11th Circuit still produces a ruling before then overturning Cannon’s opinion regarding the nature of Smith’s appointment, as in both cases I think that the law needs those rulings for posterity. But who knows if either or both will actually happen; some would argue that judicial modesty cautions against any further rulings in prosecutions that are almost certain to be dismissed within 3 months.