Gaetz withdrew from consideration for Attorney General this morning, perhaps in an effort to reduce the risk that the House Ethics Committee report becomes public and hence preserve his ability to run for Governor of Florida in 2026 (with DeSantis being term-limited).

In other news, overnight Alaska ran the ranked choice allocations and Begich won comfortably, getting the Republicans to 218 without Gaetz. Including Gaetz’s seat, the score is now 219-213 with three remaining uncalled seats, two in California and one in Iowa, each of which currently has a margin of less than 1000 votes. In the California 45th, reportedly the most expensive House race in the country, the Republican incumbent had been ahead throughout, until yesterday. Republican incumbents are still ahead in the other two races, but I would hazard a guess that the Democrat will flip the California 13th, based on where the remaining uncounted vote appears to be from. If both these California seats go blue, that would reduce Speaker Johnson’s margin to 219-215, pending a special election to replace Gaetz.

This will be my last “Election 2024” blog post. I am considering whether I want to keep writing, in a factually focused way, about developments in the second Trump term; but even if I do it is time to retire the “Election 2024” sobriquet.

Two weeks after election day, there are still 5 uncalled races in the House. The current score is Republicans 218-212, but that 218 includes Gaetz, who has already resigned. Of the four uncalled races in the Lower 48, each party currently leads in two. As the West Coast vote continues to dribble in, Trump’s share of the national popular vote has now fallen below 50.0%, with his margin currently down to +1.8%, the narrowest such margin since 2000.

The fifth uncalled House race is Alaska. While the Republican Begich has declared victory, his margin over Rep. Peltola is currently 48.5 – 46.3 on first preference votes only. So, ranked choice will come into play here. The other 2 candidates who advanced out of the primary are a Democrat (1.0%) and a member of the Alaska Independence Party (3.9%). There was no AIP candidate in the top 4 ballot in 2022, so we don’t have any historical experience on how AIP voters might redistribute under RCV, although I tend to think they would go largely red.

Speaking of ranked choice, the Alaska ballot initiative to repeal a jungle primary with 4 advancers followed by a RCV general election had been ahead since election night, but as of last night “no” has finally pulled ahead, 50.03% – 49.97%. And up in Maine’s 2nd, Democratic Rep. Golden had a plurality but not a majority in the first choice votes, and remained on top after redistribution.

And speaking of Gaetz, there is reporting suggesting that his nomination for Attorney General is in trouble, but Trump is sticking with him for now, perhaps as a lightning rod. The House Ethics committee report on Gaetz remains unreleased, but there is reporting that the committee had heard testimony from a woman that Gaetz had paid for sex when she was only 17, and further reporting today that this testimony has been accessed by an unknown hacker.

In other news, the final disposition of New York v. Trump remains unclear. Trump has indicated he will be filing a motion to dismiss the indictment, now that he is President-Elect; D.A. Bragg has indicated he will oppose that motion, but agrees that further proceedings – in particular, sentencing – may need to be stayed pending the conclusion of Trump’s second term.

Yesterday’s post went up shortly before lunchtime, but it proved to be an eventful afternoon.

A couple of hours after my post, news organizations started formally pronouncing that House control would remain with the Republicans.

Shortly after that, Trump made some additional Cabinet nomination announcements, including the startling choice of Rep. Gaetz for Attorney General. Even with a 53-47 Republican Senate majority, it is far from clear that Gaetz is confirmable, noting that he currently has a House ethics investigation hanging over his head.

Make that “had”, not “has”. Later in the day, Gaetz resigned from the House, effective immediately. It has been reported that the House Ethics Committee had been planning on releasing its report on the Gaetz investigation as early as tomorrow; but with his resignation, the ethics investigation dissipates into the ether. It will be interesting to see if the unreleased report leaks anyways, particularly given that Gaetz remains very newsworthy.

Still, the Gaetz news has the Republicans down one seat immediately until a special election can be called, with the prospect of being down two additional seats if and when Stefanik and Waltz resign to assume their new posts in the Trump administration. Having said that, all three are safe Republican districts, so this is more of a timing issue than anything else.

This morning Senate Republicans chose South Dakota’s Thune as the Majority Leader in waiting, with McConnell returning to the back benches. Thune’s majority is now set at 53-47 for now, as two days ago the AP called Nevada, the last uncalled Senate race, for Gallego.

The House remains in limbo, but the current declared count is 216-207 Republicans, and it still feels like 222-213 could be the final tally for Speaker Johnson’s team. However, I was pleased to see that the Democratic candidate has come from behind in my old stomping grounds of Orange County, California and may now retain the California 47th for the blue team.

Trump has started to roll out his nominations for certain Cabinet posts and other significant foreign policy roles. So far he has tapped two Republican House members, Stefanik for U.N. Ambassador and Waltz for National Security Advisor; their appointments may temporarily make the Republican majority in the House even more precarious. Trump has also tapped Senator Rubio to be Secretary of State, which would make him the highest-ranking Latino in the country’s history, and Governor Noem to be Secretary of Homeland Security. Trump has also picked a Fox News host for Secretary of Defense and a Baptist minister for Ambassador to Israel, in case you felt these nominations sounded too normal.

In other news, Judge Merchan was originally slated to issue his ruling yesterday on whether the Trump v. U.S. decision ought to have any bearing on the guilty verdict in New York v. Trump, but now he has decided to take an additional week to allow everyone to think through more globally how Trump’s election ought to impact the resolution of this case. More to come around November 19th.

Yesterday the AP called Nevada for Trump, giving him a complete sweep of the 7 swing states and making the final score 312-226.

In the end the election was considerably less close than either 2016 or 2020, even though on the day before each election 2024 was perceived to be the closest of the three races. To get from the 226 EV she actually won to 270+, Harris would have needed to take Wisconsin (losing by 0.9%), Michigan (losing by 1.1%), and Pennsylvania (losing by 2.1%). None of those races are as close as the three outcome-determinative close races Clinton lost in 2016 (the same three states) or the three outcome-determinative close races Trump lost in 2020 (AZ/GA/NV).

The House remains in limbo, with the score now 213-203 Republicans, and with the Republicans ahead in 9 of the remaining 19 uncalled races.

Over in the Senate, Nevada has been called for Rosen, leaving Arizona as the only uncalled race, where Gallego holds a 49.8 – 48.1 lead with 88% of the vote counted. As such it looks like 53 will be the final number. Trump has not yet weighted in on this week’s Senate leadership election, although he did note today that a precondition for his support would be a willingness to make recess appointments of acting Cabinet officials, and also a willingness to block the Democrats from pushing through any additional judicial appointments in the lame-duck session. It had been noted that, four years ago, the Republican Senate continued to push through additional judicial appointments in the lame-duck session, one of whom happened to be Judge Cannon.

And speaking of Judge Cannon: Special Counsel Smith was in the news in the latter half of the week, as he figures out how to bring closure to both flavors of U.S. v. Trump in a world where (a) longstanding DOJ policy forbids the prosecution of a sitting president, and (b) the president-elect has vowed to fire Smith early on day one, and then perhaps exile him. The precise path forward remains unclear, even if it is crystal clear that neither prosecution will proceed come January 20th. My hope is that Judge Chutkan still produces a ruling before then on the question of how the test outlined by SCOTUS in Trump v. U.S. applies to the facts of the Jan 6 indictment, and that the 11th Circuit still produces a ruling before then overturning Cannon’s opinion regarding the nature of Smith’s appointment, as in both cases I think that the law needs those rulings for posterity. But who knows if either or both will actually happen; some would argue that judicial modesty cautions against any further rulings in prosecutions that are almost certain to be dismissed within 3 months.

Harris offered a concession speech about 24 hours ago, and earlier today Biden spoke publicly, reaffirming his commitment to a peaceful transition of power.

In the Senate, Wisconsin has been called for Baldwin (currently 49.4 – 48.5), and Michigan has been called for Slotkin (currently 48.6 – 48.3). An hour ago the AP called Pennsylvania for McCormick (currently 49.0 – 48.5), although not all outlets have followed suit. If you were to add the Libertarian candidate’s votes to McCormick and the Green candidate’s votes to Casey, Casey would have won.

McCormick puts the Republicans at 53, which is important as it allows them to lose Collins and Murkowski, and whoever the 3rd-least MAGA Republican Senator is at this point (quite unclear, with Romney’s retirement), and still win a vote thanks to VP-Elect Vance. (I am presuming that Ohio Governor DeWine will briskly appoint a Republican to replace Vance in the Senate.) 53 may be the final number, as Rosen has come back to take a 13K lead (47.7 – 46.7) in Nevada while Gallego is still up 50K in Arizona (50.0 – 48.0).

The current score in the House is Republicans 210-198; the Wisconsin 3rd has been called for Van Orden over Cooke, while the Nebraska 2nd remains uncalled although Bacon’s lead over Vargas remains close to 3 points. Right now the Republicans are leading in 13 of the uncalled races, so the Democrats’ hope of retaining the House is still alive but not looking great.

One of those 13 races is Alaska, where Republican ex-Rep. Begich is leading Democratic Rep. Peltola 49.5 – 45.4 with 76% of the vote in; however, Alaska is a ranked choice state, so if Begich can’t cross 50% then the third-party vote will need to get re-allocated, which is how Peltola had gotten herself elected in the first place. (Interestingly, a ballot referendum to repeal open primaries and ranked choice in Alaska has a narrow lead, despite having been outspent 100-to-1 by proponents of the current system.) Another is the California 47th, the district in which I went to high school. This was Katie Porter’s seat, but she gave it up in order to run for Senate, where she finished 3rd in the jungle primary; right now the Republican, Baugh, has a 50.2 – 49.8 lead over the Democrat, Min, with a lot of vote yet to count.

Not much new to report. No new state calls, so the score remains Trump 277-224, but it seems likely that the final score will be Trump 312-226. Harris has not conceded yet, but the rumor is that she will deliver her concession speech this evening at 5pm Central.

No new Senate calls, either. Slotkin has pulled ahead of Rogers by 10K, and Baldwin’s lead over Hovde is now 28K, while Casey has pulled to within 50K of McCormick. Further west, where the vote count is less mature, Rosen is several hundred votes behind Brown, and Gallego is 60K ahead of Lake. So, maybe a Republican majority of 53 is looking more likely than 54 now, and 52 is not out of the question.

As of right now the NYTimes is showing the House as 198-178 for the Republicans, in called races. If I counted right the Democrats are currently ahead 35-24 in the uncalled races, which if it holds would give Speaker Johnson a working majority of 4 seats, at 222-213. As such, it is looking like total control for the Republicans.

Trump’s lead in the national popular vote is currently substantial, at about 4.8 million votes, or 51.0 – 47.5. However the California vote is still very incomplete, and there may also be pockets of uncounted urban vote in eastern cities. Nevertheless, it is very conceivable that in the fullness of time Trump will have won the national popular vote. While Silver’s model had Harris as the favorite to win the national popular vote, she was only something like a 76% favorite, and one of the last major polls released before the election (from NBC) had the national popular vote in a 49-49 tie. As such last night’s results, while favorable to Trump, are hardly in the extreme end of the antebellum bell curve.

And honestly, as much as I dislike the results of the election and fear for what may lie ahead, at least we have a clear and uncontroversial outcome. Trump and the Congressional Republicans will have 2 years of unchecked power, without questions about the legitimacy of their victories; and all of us will get to see what they do with that power, and react accordingly. And, one hopes, a new generation of Democratic leadership will rise from the ashes and find new arguments that resonate with the American people. I don’t think the Great Resorting of the electorate is done quite yet.

I’ll make some additional posts in the days ahead to wrap up the final numbers for posterity, but for the most part this post marks the end of this 11-month blogging project. The road has had so many twists and turns, and the destination is thoroughly unappealing; but these have, indeed, been interesting times.

I woke up to discover than, around 4:30am Central, the AP called the election for Trump. While I slept he won both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, getting him to 277 EV. Michigan remains uncalled, as do Arizona and Nevada, as well as Maine. If current trends in the Western states continue, Trump is poised to have swept all 7 swing states. Which was certainly a plausible scenario, and one consistent with an electorate in which the national popular vote was evenly split rather than giving Harris a 2-point advantage.

More recently the AP has called the Montana Senate race for Sheehy over Tester. Right now things are looking promising for Baldwin to hold on in Wisconsin, and less promising for Casey in Pennsylvania. The Slotkin-Rogers race for the open seat in Michigan is very tight, as is Rosen’s re-election bid in Nevada; Gallego is ahead of Lake in Arizona. So 54 seats for Republicans sounds about right – a large enough majority that they can afford to lose Murkowski and Collins here and there.

Minnesota was called for Harris overnight although it was closer than one might have thought; right now she’s ahead 51.1 – 46.7. (Our precinct went 59-38 for Harris, compared with 54-45 Biden in 2020, but the nature of this precinct has been evolving rapidly in recent years due to new housing tracts.) Craig won re-election in the Minnesota 2nd more handily than one might have expected, and is currently ahead 55.6 – 42.1. She tacked pretty hard to the middle in her TV ad strategy, so much so that we took down the yard sign we’d had up for her, but she seems to have known what she was doing.

While Harris did win Omaha’s EV, it was by a smaller margin that most had expected, with the margin currently at 51.2 – 47.5. Her coattails do not appear to have been enough to drag Vargas to victory over Bacon; while the race remains uncalled the Democrat is currently behind, 48.6 – 51.4. Also uncalled as of yet is the Wisconsin 3rd, where Cooke is currently behind by the same margin. While there’s still a lot of vote to be counted, the Democrats’ failure to unseat Bacon and Van Orden would not bode well for their ability to retake the House.

NBC just called Georgia for Trump, giving him a 246-189 EV lead.

The Nebraska Senate race has been called for Fischer, who is now up 51.9 – 48.1 with 74% of the vote in; this guarantees the Republicans 51 seats in the Senate. Only 16% of the Montana vote is in, and Tester is currently behind 39.4 – 58.9; a Sheehy win there makes it 52. Baldwin (WI), Casey (PA), and Slotkin (MI) are all currently behind in their races, so the Republicans could easily get to 55 before all is said and done, even assuming that Gallego beats Lake in Arizona.

In the House, there is no race in the NYTimes’ “Republican expected to win” column in which the Democrat is currently ahead. The closest such races are the Wisconsin 3rd, where Cooke is behind 48.4 – 51.6, and the Colorado 3rd (Boebert’s former district before she sandbagged over to replace Buck in a safer seat), where Frisch is behind 47.2 – 49.9.

As such, while the Presidential race has not yet been called and while it may be days before the House sorts itself out, we need to steel ourselves to the very real notion of unified Republican government under a President Trump, the main pillars of whose platform includes mass deportation of immigrants, widespread tariffs, and radical shifts in U.S. foreign policy.

God help us all.

Weirdly, almost none of the vote from my own county – Washington County, MN – has come in yet. Despite that, enough Minnesota vote has come in that Klobuchar’s Senate race has been called, and Craig (whose district only has a small portion of Washington County) is up 56.1 – 41.7 with 84% of the vote in although the race has not yet been called. Over the river from me, Van Orden’s margin over Cooke has widened to 51.9 – 48.1 with 74% of the vote in.

With polls having closed in the West Coast by now, the current score is 230-200 for Trump. Of the blue-leaning states Minnesota, New Hampshire, and New Mexico have yet to be called; Maine and Nebraska, with their unique methodologies for allocated EVs, are still also up in the air.

The NYTimes live model thinks Trump is a strong favorite in Georgia and the favorite in each of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Osborn has now fallen behind Fischer. 49.3 – 50.7.