Vote continues to be counted in the several remaining states of interest. A quick snapshot of the current state of affairs:

• In Nevada, where no change was made yesterday to voting totals, this morning Biden’s lead has widened slightly from 8K to 12K, or 0.9%.
• In Arizona, there is more outstanding vote yet to be counted than was originally believed (which may have misled some news organizations into calling Arizona for Biden); but, unlike in the other states of interest, this late vote appears to be breaking for Trump. Over the past 24 hours Biden’s margin has narrowed from 3.4% to 2.5%.
• Georgia keeps narrowing as the vote totals from metropolitan Atlanta increase. Right now Trump’s lead is down to less than 14K, or 0.3%. Senator Purdue is now at 50.0%; if he drops below 50% then there will be two separate runoff Senate elections in January.
• Pennsylvania also keeps narrowing as votes from Philadelphia and elsewhere trickle in. Trump’s margin, in double digits on election night, is now down to 1.8%, or 115K votes.
• North Carolina looks to be in a suspended state, as they wait for ballots postmarked by election day to arrive and be counted. The state remains uncalled but there don’t look to have been any updates made to the vote totals lately, with Trump still ahead by 1.4% and Senator Tillis still ahead by 1.8%

Nate Cohn (from the New York Times’ The Upshot) thinks things look good for Biden in NV, AZ, GA, and PA. If true that would give Biden a 306-232 win, which is exactly the same as the Trump-Clinton electoral vote margin in 2016 (before taking faithless electors into account).

Right now Biden has a 3.8 million vote lead in the national popular vote, which is only about 1 million more than Clinton’s 2016 lead. However, I imagine that lead will continue to widen, with plenty of vote yet to be counted in Democratic strongholds like California, New York, and Illinois.

In the past several hours, news organizations have named Biden the “apparent winner” in Wisconsin, as vote tabulation appears to be complete but his margin is narrow enough that a recount may occur. He has a 20K vote lead, or 0.6%; that’s smaller than Trump’s margin of victory in Wisconsin four years ago.

News organizations have also named Biden the winner in Michigan, as the counting of votes from urban areas has given him an ever-widening lead throughout the day. Right now his lead is about 120K votes, or 2.1%.

Trump’s leads in both Georgia and Pennsylvania have been compressing throughout the day as votes from urban areas come in. Trump’s lead in Georgia currently sits at only 80K, or 0.8%; Senator Perdue remains very slightly above the all-important 50% line, at 50.2%. Pennsylvania is now at 51-48 Trump, whereas I think he started the day ahead more like 56-43. Both states remain in significant doubt.

North Carolina hasn’t been called yet, but Trump’s lead remains 1.4% and the result here seems less uncertain than in GA or PA. Senator Tillis has a 1.8% lead over Cunningham.

There have been no new developments during the day in either Arizona or Nevada, although both states are expected to report new votes later tonight. Some news organizations have not yet called Arizona for Biden. While Biden’s lead in Nevada is only 8K, or 0.6%, most observers seem to believe the uncounted vote there is more likely to break for Biden; whereas in Arizona, where Biden’s lead in 3.4%, the nature of the uncounted vote is less clear.

At any rate: Nevada plus Arizona is enough to get Biden to 270 regardless of what happens in GA/PA/NC. In mid-afternoon Biden gave a brief speech, including a statement that will probably go down in the annals of U.S. political history as one of the great semantic statements of all time:

I’m not here to declare that we’ve won, but I am here to report when the count is finished, we believe we will be the winners.

Naturally I was reminded of the famous line from “Deep Space Homer”:

Gentlemen, you’ve both worked very hard. And in a way, you’re both winners. But in another more accurate way, Barney is the winner.

One disappointing piece of news this afternoon was that Gideon conceded to Senator Collins in Maine. It looks like Collins has actually made it to 51% on first-choice votes, without the need to redistribute the third-party candidates’ votes.

We may soon be entering the “protracted litigation phase” of the Presidential election. And, of course, if things break badly for Biden from here and the final total ends up at 270-268, then we could eventually enter the “faithless elector” phase, as highlighted in a new article today from The Atlantic.

A quick snapshot of where things currently stand, roughly 18 hours after polls started closing in the Eastern states:

• Wisconsin. An election official just announced that she’s aware of only 1 municipality whose votes have not yet been tabulated, and it has only several hundred votes. Biden is currently ahead by about 20K votes, or 0.7%.
• Michigan. Biden is currently ahead by about 45K votes, or 0.9%, and it seems to be trending in a favorable direction for Biden.
• Arizona. Biden is currently ahead by about 93K votes, or 3.4%. Many but not all news outlets have called the state for Biden at this point. Infamously, Fox News had called it early last night, then later retracted it, supposedly under considerable pressure from the Trump campaign to so do.
• Nevada. Biden is currently ahead by only 8K votes, or 0.6%, and the state has announced there will be no further updates until tomorrow morning.
• Nebraska-2. Biden remains comfortably ahead, currently by 6.5%.
• Georgia and North Carolina. Neither state has been called yet, but Trump is up by 1.8% and 1.4%, respectively.
• Pennsylvania. Trump is currently ahead by about 8% but there is plenty more vote to be counted that is expected to be favorable to Biden.

No real movement in the past few hours. However I’ve seen some analysis suggesting that WI, MI, and NV all seem likely to remain as narrow Biden victories. With that, and with AZ looking good for Biden and NE-2 in the bag, that puts the “Plan A2” 270-268 scenario in play, even if GA, NC, and PA all go south. Having said that, if we really end up at 270-268 then the entire “faithless elector” situation comes into play, as if we needed more chaos…

A friend has pointed out that in the unlikely event that MI (with 16 electoral votes) and NC (15) were to flip outcomes from how things currently look, we could still end at a 269-269 tie.

Things do not look promising, from my standpoint, for two state-level initiatives I care deeply about. First, California Proposition 22, which classifies app-based drivers as independent contractors rather than employees, appears to have passed. I’ll save my anguish over the process and outcome for some other post some other time. Second, the Illinois constitutional amendment to permit graduated tax rates is currently losing 55-45, although it’s unclear to me how much Illinois vote remains to be counted and of what type. The Illinois results reported to date seem strange to me, with Biden only ahead 55-43 and Senator Durbin only ahead 52-41, which makes me suspect there could still be a lot of left-leaning vote to be counted.

As expected, both my wife’s riding (MN-4) and mine (IL-4) have been called for the incumbent. Oh wait, we don’t call them “ridings” here, we call them “districts” – my mistake. The neighboring rid… district of MN-2, where my wife’s employer is based, has not yet been called. The incumbent Democrat, Craig, is currently ahead of her Republican challenger 49-47. Six percent of the vote went to the candidate of the Legalize Marijuana Now Party, even though he died six weeks ago; before his death he had admitted to a close friend that Republicans encouraged him to run in order to siphon votes away from Craig. Originally his death was going to cause a postponement of the election to February, and although Craig successfully sued to have the election go ahead as planned, litigation on that point may continue post-election.

I got some sleep, and woke up to an even more uncertain and chaotic electoral landscape than I was expecting to find. The New York Times headline right now is “Election Turns Into Nailbiter That May Extend For Days.”

It is very clear that the Republicans had an excellent night. They seem poised to gain some seats in the House, contrary to general expectations, but not enough seats to jeopardize the Democratic majority. It also seems increasingly likely that they will retain the Senate: overnight the Montana race was declared for Daines, and while the Georgia and Maine and North Carolina races remain uncalled they all are looking good for the Republicans.

And then there’s the Presidency. As of right now Biden has only razor-thin leads in both Wisconsin (where the Milwaukee early vote came in an hour ago) and Nevada. Michigan also looks like it will be closer than expected. Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Pennsylvania remain uncertain.

There is a need for patience to allow the various states to complete their normal counting processes, before we can really understand the lay of the land. However patience is difficult. At this point I don’t believe that any news organizations have gone out on a limb and called the election, although Trump made some comments in the middle of the night that have been interpreted as a declaration of victory.

The headline of this article from Politico’s Ryan Lizza sounds about right: “Biden Looks Screwed Even If He Wins.”

It really is time to head to bed, even if I said that an hour ago…

Iowa and Texas have been called for Trump within the last hour. North Carolina remains a remote possibility for Biden. Some pundits feel more optimistic about the possibility of Georgia, where we’re still waiting for a lot of vote from Fulton County and other metropolitan Atlanta areas.

The “two paths” argument for Biden is becoming conventional wisdom: If we presume Biden holds Nevada and flips Michigan and Wisconsin, then Biden can prevail by winning Pennsylvania, or by winning Arizona plus Omaha. Biden is now sitting at +7.5 in Nebraska-2, which is consistent with pre-election expectations.

Biden gave a brief speech in Delaware to his supporters maybe half an hour ago, expressing confidence that he will prevail once all the vote is counted. There is a rumor Trump will give a speech soon but I’m not going to wait up to hear it.

The Senate race continues to favor the Republicans. Montana has been close all night but is currently 52-48 in favor of Daines. North Carolina is now 49-47 in favor of Tillis. Iowa was called for Ernst. The Perdue-Ossoff race is still a wildcard given how much Atlanta vote is outstanding. Too early to know anything about Alaska.

Pundits are saying that neither Presidential campaign expects there to be a result tonight. I’m likely to grab some rest soon and see what additional news the morning brings.

Biden is currently leading in Nebraska-2 (Omaha) 51-47, even though the Republican incumbent Congressman is leading 52-45 in a rematch against his 2018 opponent. Biden is even leading in Nebraska-1 (Lincoln) 50-48.

My best guess is that in the fullness of time Biden wins 290-248, which represents the Clinton states plus Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nebraska-2. But it will be days before we have clarity.

NBC News just called Ohio for Trump as I was writing this.

I haven’t seen any news out of the Iowa or Montana Senate races yet, but it may transpire that the Democrats’ possible path to 50 Senate seats runs through the January runoff between Warnock and Loeffler. But who knows.

By this point I think we know that it’s not going to be a Biden blowout night, and that if the Democrats do eke out a Senate majority it will be a slim one.

Florida has not yet been called for Trump but it seems likely that will occur tonight. North Carolina is razor-tight, both in the Presidential race and in the Senate race, with the Republicans slightly ahead right now but some urban vote thought to be extant. Ohio is similar. Arizona looks promising for the Democrats, in both the Presidential and Senate races. It is unclear what the Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin data is telling us.

Senators Cornyn (TX) and Graham (SC) have already won their races, which were ‘stretch goals’ for the Democrats. Two Senate seats have switched hands, the Gardner seat (CO) going blue and the Jones seat (AL) going red; however those were the most likely seats to switch. No news from the Collins (ME) seat, although ranked choice voting in Maine may make that race late to resolve since there is a progressive independent expected to get a few percent of the first-choice votes.

If we think back to Silver’s characterization of the Presidential race several days ago: It is looking like none of the several “Plan Cs” (Florida, Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia) may materialize for Biden, so we’re down to Plan A1 (Pennsylvania) or Plan A2 (Arizona + Omaha). And it’s too early to know about either of those.

We know nothing, for all intents and purposes.

Florida doesn’t look particularly good for Biden, particularly in Miami-Dade. Some potentially promising news out of North Carolina, and mixed news out of Texas and Georgia, but it is really hard to make sense of the limited available data.

Likely to be a long night.

Election Day is finally upon us. Of course, something like 99.7 million Americans have already cast their vote prior to Election Day. My wife and I are both among them. I voted in my home district, the remarkably-shaped Illinois 4th, two-and-a-half weeks ago thanks to Chicago’s well-organized early voting system. She voted in her home district, the much more sanely-shaped Minnesota 4th, using vote-by-mail and received confirmation days ago that her vote had been received and would be counted.

Not that either of our votes will matter, in all likelihood. There is no chance that either Biden or Senator Durbin will lose in Illinois, and no chance that Congressman Garcia will lose in the Illinois 4th (a district that has voted at least 76% Democratic in each Presidential election since 2000). Up in Minnesota, Trump’s hopes of flipping the state have faded significantly, and Senator Smith seems to be a safe bet for re-election; as for 10-term Congresswoman McCollum in the Minnesota 4th, she’s won between 57% and 66% of the vote in each election since the district’s boundaries changed in 2013 to extend eastward from St. Paul to the Wisconsin border, and I’d never so much as heard the name of her Republican opponent until I looked it up in the course of writing this post.

Still, the principle of the matter is important – particularly to me, who spent almost two decades of my life living in the U.S. but unable to vote. And it seems the principle is important to an increasing proportion of Americans. 138.8 million votes were cast in 2016, representing turnout of approximately 55%. FiveThirtyEight is predicting that turnout will be somewhere in the 147 to 168 million range in 2020, which would represent turnout in the 57-65% range; we haven’t hit 60% turnout for a Presidential election since the 1960s.

We’ll see what happens. I’m going to try my best to put my head down and ignore politics during the workday, as it’s likely to be a long and chaotic night.

As I’ve been discussing, one of the potentials for chaos relates to the fragmented nature of how Presidential elections are conducted in the U.S., where state and local officials have adopted widely disparate approaches to when and how votes are collected and tabulated. I suspect there may be a push for electoral reform in the wake of 2020.

In that vein, yesterday I noticed a very interesting article in Bloomberg Opinion from a Chicago lawyer (and one-time Democratic congressional primary candidate) named Thomas Geoghegan. He argues that Congress could indeed promulgate uniform federal standards on how all federal elections are conducted, and that such a law would be constitutional under the “privileges and immunities” clause of the 14th Amendment. Interesting thought.