By this point I think we know that it’s not going to be a Biden blowout night, and that if the Democrats do eke out a Senate majority it will be a slim one.

Florida has not yet been called for Trump but it seems likely that will occur tonight. North Carolina is razor-tight, both in the Presidential race and in the Senate race, with the Republicans slightly ahead right now but some urban vote thought to be extant. Ohio is similar. Arizona looks promising for the Democrats, in both the Presidential and Senate races. It is unclear what the Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin data is telling us.

Senators Cornyn (TX) and Graham (SC) have already won their races, which were ‘stretch goals’ for the Democrats. Two Senate seats have switched hands, the Gardner seat (CO) going blue and the Jones seat (AL) going red; however those were the most likely seats to switch. No news from the Collins (ME) seat, although ranked choice voting in Maine may make that race late to resolve since there is a progressive independent expected to get a few percent of the first-choice votes.

If we think back to Silver’s characterization of the Presidential race several days ago: It is looking like none of the several “Plan Cs” (Florida, Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia) may materialize for Biden, so we’re down to Plan A1 (Pennsylvania) or Plan A2 (Arizona + Omaha). And it’s too early to know about either of those.