It really is time to head to bed, even if I said that an hour ago…

Iowa and Texas have been called for Trump within the last hour. North Carolina remains a remote possibility for Biden. Some pundits feel more optimistic about the possibility of Georgia, where we’re still waiting for a lot of vote from Fulton County and other metropolitan Atlanta areas.

The “two paths” argument for Biden is becoming conventional wisdom: If we presume Biden holds Nevada and flips Michigan and Wisconsin, then Biden can prevail by winning Pennsylvania, or by winning Arizona plus Omaha. Biden is now sitting at +7.5 in Nebraska-2, which is consistent with pre-election expectations.

Biden gave a brief speech in Delaware to his supporters maybe half an hour ago, expressing confidence that he will prevail once all the vote is counted. There is a rumor Trump will give a speech soon but I’m not going to wait up to hear it.

The Senate race continues to favor the Republicans. Montana has been close all night but is currently 52-48 in favor of Daines. North Carolina is now 49-47 in favor of Tillis. Iowa was called for Ernst. The Perdue-Ossoff race is still a wildcard given how much Atlanta vote is outstanding. Too early to know anything about Alaska.