Election 2024: Anticipation

Work has continued to be very busy this month, so I have fallen behind again on blogging. This should be a very eventful week, however, and as such I wanted to start a Monday morning off with some context.

Today opening arguments are expected to start in the “hush money” criminal case, New York v. Trump. Four days of court time last week was enough to impanel 12 jurors and 6 alternates.

This morning there will also be a hearing before Judge Engoron regarding whether or not the $175 million appeal bond in the Trump Org civil fraud case, New York v. Trump et al, is legally adequate. District Attorney James’ filing suggests three independent reasons why it is not: first, that Knight Specialty Insurance Company (KSIC) does not have adequate control over the collateral initially posted by Trump; second, that KSIC does not have sufficient financial resources to write the bond, given its level of statutory surplus plus the fact that it has taken large amounts of reserve credit for reinsurance ceded to its Cayman-domiciled parent; and third, that KSIC’s ultimate owner, billionaire Don Hankey, does not meet the statutory “trustworthy and competent management” standard that is relevant here, in light of his having previously run afoul of the federal CFPB in his core business, subprime auto loans.

On Thursday, SCOTUS will hear oral arguments in the presidential immunity case, Trump v. U.S.

Last week, the Senate took only a few hours to summarily dispose of the House’s impeachment of DHS Secretary Mayorkas, dismissing both articles of impeachment on a party-line vote on the grounds that the charges did not represent “high crimes or misdemeanors”.

DJT stock reached a new post-merger low below $23 on Tuesday, but after that had a strong recovery, closing Friday above $36 for the first time in 10 days.

Finally, over the weekend the House finally enacted foreign aid legislation that had been languishing for months, enabling defensive aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. Cleverly, Speaker Johnson structured matters into four discrete votes – one for each of those three nations, and a fourth vote that covered other provisions, including one aimed at forcing the divestiture of TikTok by the Chinese government. However, even getting the package to the House floor required cooperation from the Democrats on the House Rules Committee, which is extremely unusual; and then for the Ukraine vote itself, while Democratic support was unanimous, Republicans voted 112-101 against the bill. Turning his back on the Hastert Rule may yet cost Johnson his speakership, with MTG poised to play the role that Gaetz played to McCarthy last fall.

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