Election 2024: Day -120

It continues to be a big week, globally, for elections: On top of Labour’s victory in the UK earlier this week, yesterday Iran elected a new moderate president, while today it appears that tactical voting by the left and centrist parties have prevented the far-right National Rally from getting a majority in in France, although the outcome remains unclear as I write this.

Between the 2020 and 2024 US elections, not only did I change my voter registration from Illinois to Minnesota, but also our Minnesota house was redistricted out of a safe Democratic seat and into a much more competitive seat: the Minnesota 2nd, currently held by Democrat Angie Craig. I mention this because yesterday our Representative became the first sitting Democratic Representative from a swing district, and 5th overall, to call for Biden to drop out of the race.

So far Biden remains competely committed to running, saying in his Friday interview with George Stephanopolous (which, at only 20 minutes in length, was shorter than I had been thinking it would be) that only the “Lord Almighty” could convince him to drop out of the race. The prediction markets have not rebounded in his favor over the weekend, however, with the Biden contract sitting at $0.41 as I write this. And reports are coming out that, on a private call among House Democratic leadership today, more leaders spoke in favor of Biden dropping out than spoke in favor of him staying.

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