Election 2024: Day -124

Tomorrow is Independence Day in the US, as well as election day in the UK.

A brief note here, about current activity in prediction markets. PredictIt has a contract on who the 2024 Democratic nominee will be, which pays out $1.00 if you’re right and zero if you’re not, and hence can be viewed as a market-based probability assessment. Through the last three months, the Biden contract had traded steadily in the $0.81 to $0.89 range, on fairly light volume.

Ever since the debate, volume on that contract has ticked up significantly, and Biden’s value has been declining. Twenty-four hours ago, the Biden contract was at $0.63. Twelve hours ago, it was at $0.44. An hour ago, it was $0.41. Right now, it’s down to $0.28. The Harris contract started trading level with the Biden contract for the first time several hours ago, and right now it is up to $0.57.

A new CNN poll has Trump ahead of Biden 49-43, but Trump ahead of Harris by a narrower margin, 47-45. The poll also said that 75% of registered voters believe the Democrats’ chances would be improved by taking Biden off the ticket.

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