Election 2020: Day 5

Now that there’s a general consensus among the news organizations that Biden will be the 46th President of the United States, I’m going to go back to recording developments on no more than a daily basis, at night.

After yesterday morning’s call by all the major media organizations, there was a Biden-Harris victory speech event in the evening, at an outdoor stage in Wilmington that had been awaiting that moment for days. Biden gave a good if occasionally uneven speech, whose most memorable line I think is the following: “Let this grim era of demonization in America begin to end here and now.” Good band name, Grim Era of Demonization.

Trump remains defiant that the election is not over. There is speculation that he may never actually concede, and may not attend Biden’s inauguration.

And there will be lawsuits; but it is unclear to what practical effect. In 2000, the election hinged on a single state in which the voting margin was measured in hundreds of votes. Whereas, if Biden does end up with a 306-232 advantage as is now widely expected, litigation would need to be successful in multiple states in order to effectuate a change in the outcome. And the margins we’re talking about in all of those states are much larger: Right now Biden has leads of 43K in PA, 33K in NV, 20K in WI, 17K in AZ, and 10K in GA. So while the election was in some real sense a close one, it’s not “reversibly close” the way it was in 2000.

There remains a lot to resolve down-ballot, particularly in the House. One race I’ve been watching is the Illinois 14th. This used to be Speaker Hastert’s district, although in the post-2010 redistricting its geography and character changed somewhat. It now represents the western exurbs of Chicago, including most of Kane, McHenry, and Kendall Counties. While historically a Republican district, in 2018 a young African-American Democrat named Lauren Underwood unexpectedly flipped the seat, making her a rare example of a Black representative whose district is only about 3% Black. This time Underwood is running against dairy magnate, mutual fund manager, and perennial Republican candidate Jim Oberweis. Until recently Oberweis looked to have a very narrow lead, but today Underwood moved ahead by several hundred votes as more vote came in from Lake County. It may be another ten days before the situation is clear.