TACO Tuesday arrived less than an hour after my last post, with the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the U.S., mediated by Pakistan, to be accompanied by the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The markets loved that news. The price of a barrel of Brent Crude, around $110 prior to the announcement, immediately dipped below $95. U.S. stock markets were up almost 3% today, and emerging markets were generally up more than that.

But, what exactly is the present situation? More than 24 hours later, the Strait does not appear to be open and, as Bloomberg put it, “a series of conflicting statements — and actions — since the announcement suggests fundamental differences remain, making the truce even more fragile.” VP Vance is currently expected to lead the U.S. side of negotiations with the Iranians this weekend in Pakistan.

And while the last 36 hours obviously could have gone far worse, are we in a good place? Former Republican Congressman Adam Kinzinger doesn’t think so:

“if this ceasefire holds, the United States lost. Not “didn’t fully win.” Not “achieved mixed results.” Lost. And the victory laps being run out of the White House today — the Truth Social posts, Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon podium declaring “Operation Epic Fury” a “historic victory” — are the kind of performance that would embarrass any serious military strategist, and that should embarrass every American who’s been paying attention.”

Or, as a headline in The Atlantic put it: “Trump’s Iran Deal Gives Him Nothing He Wanted”, with the sub-head “U.S. declarations of victory ring hollow”.

In other news, the result in last night’s runoff by-election in the safe Republican seat of the Georgia 14th was a 56-44 victory for the Trump-endorsed candidate. By comparison: a few weeks ago in the jungle Democrats collectively got 40% of the vote; a year-and-a-half ago the same Democratic candidate lost to MTG, 64-36; and in that same election, Trump beat Harris 68-31.

There was also a Wisconsin Supreme Court election last night, the third such election in the past three years. The previous two elections were national news, as in both cases the winning side would garner a 4-3 majority. This election attracted much less attention and spending, however, as majority control of the court was not in play. Nonetheless, after winning the 2023 election 55-44 and winning the 2025 election 55-45, last night the “Democratic” candidate (technically these elections are non-partisan) won 60-40. As such, both the Georgia and Wisconsin results last night suggest a strengthening wind at the Democrats’ back going into this fall.

On the legal front, yesterday plaintiffs filed their reply brief with the Court of International Trade in the Section 122 tariffs case, Oregon v. Trump, with respect to their request for summary judgment. Today a bipartisan group of economists with history in government service filed an amicus brief supporting plaintiffs. I find the plaintiffs’ arguments extremely compelling, to be honest. Oral argument at the CIT is on Friday.

Finally, several days ago it was announced that the administration had issued a legal opinion to the effect that the Presidential Records Act — the focal point of the Mar-a-Lago documents case — is unconstitutional, notwithstanding the 1977 SCOTUS decision in Nixon v. GSA. This week the American Historical Association filed suit in federal court, so AHA v. Trump will be another fun one to watch.