Things have been fairly quiet in recent days.
A new controversy arose last week, when Trump started airing ads praising his presidency that were funded not by his super PAC, but directly by the U.S. government. Trump argues that these are not political ads since he is not a candidate for any office, but instead represent public service announcements reminding Americans to love their country. His argument might be stronger if not for the fact that one of the ads is a repurposed version of an ad he used in his 2024 campaign. Indeed, many Democrats believe the ads are clearly illegal.
It’s all gotten so tiring, trying to maintain the outrage when this President does things that no predecessor would have considered doing, that no President should be allowed to get away with. In his first term there was public outcry when he wanted to use his Doral golf resort to host a government summit, and as a result it didn’t happen. This time around it’s actually happening–the G20 in December will be held at Doral–but so much other similarly corrupt stuff has happened and keeps happening that it gets lost in the noise. As the NYTimes put it this week: “The unprecedented blitz of self-enrichment by Mr. Trump, his family and his friends since he returned to the White House last year has become so extensive, so profligate and so brazen that he has effectively moved the goal posts of what is considered out of bounds. An act that was deemed an outrage in 2019 is barely noticed in 2026.”
There was action taken by SCOTUS this week on the third-country removals case, D.V.D. vs. DHS, mentioned in my last post; they lifted the administrative stay (over the objections of the 3 liberals), thus allowing deportations to resume for now, but they also scheduled the case to be heard on the merits in accelerated fashion, in December.
Things continue to look good for Democrats in states where we’re not used to things looking good for Democrats. The NYTimes released a number of new polls this weekend in key red states:
Alaska. Peltola is leading Sullivan 50-43, and Silver has upped Peltola’s chances of unseating the Republican incumbent to 63%, which still strikes me as rather too low given the results from this summer’s jungle primary. The Democratic candidate is also ahead 52-48 in an open gubernatorial race, with here Silver rating the Democrat as an 87% favorite.
Iowa. In an open Governor’s race currently held by the Republicans, the Democrat Sand is ahead, 52-41; Silver has Sand as a 92% favorite. In the open Senate race currently held by the Republicans, the Democrat Turek is behind 47-48 in this poll, but Silver has Turek as a 59% favorite.
Kansas. Incumbent Republican Senator Marshall is tied 45-45 in this poll with a moderate Democrat, Hamilton; Silver has taken Hamilton’s chances up to 42%. However here the Republicans may reclaim the Governor’s seat, an open seat currently held by the Democrats; the new poll is 49-44 for the Republican, who Silver has as a 70% favorite.
Ohio. Former Democratic Senator Brown is ahead of current Republican Senator Husted, 49-46, and is now seen by Silver as a 74% favorite. Meanwhile, in an open gubernatorial race that a Republican incumbent had won handily 4 years ago (defeating someone I know slightly, former Dayton mayor Nan Whaley), the Democratic candidate Acton is polling ahead of 2024 Presidential primary contender Ramaswamy, 49-45, and is viewed as a 77% favorite by Silver.
Texas. Talarico remains ahead of Paxton in the latest poll, 51-45, and is seen by Silver as a 74% favorite. Interestingly, Republican Governor Abbott may be in some trouble: the NYTimes poll has him behind the Democrat Hinojosa, 49-46. although Silver still sees Abbott as a 73% favorite.
Putting all the pieces together, Silver has the Democrats’ chances of retaking the Senate (assuming no Fetterman defection) up to 73%, with an average outcome of 52-48.
He also has the Democrats’ chances of retaking the House up to 93%, with an average outcome of 238-197. I wanted to close today by talking about a few House seats that I’ve focused on in past election cycles.
My own seat, the Minnesota 2nd, no longer seems to be competitive in the current climate, even with the retirement (thanks to her failed Senate primary challenge) of incumbent Angie Craig: Silver has this race at 98.5% for the Democratic candidate, former state Senator Matt Little. Instead, an adjacent district may be coming back into play for the Democrats, the Minnesota 1st; this was the seat once held by Governor Walz, but in 2024 it went 58.5-41.4 to the Republican incumbent, Brad Finstad. However, right now Silver has Finstad as only a 68% favorite against a new Democratic challenger, high school math teacher Jake Johnson.
To my east lies the Wisconsin 3rd, which the Democrats had hoped to flip in 2024 but lost, 51.3-48.6. This race is a rematch of 2024, and Silver has second-time candidate Cooke at 73% to defeat the Republican incumbent, Van Orden. Another Wisconsin district of interest will be the 1st, which is Paul Ryan’s old seat down by the Illinois border; this went 54-44 to the Republicans in 2024, but Silver has the Republican incumbent as only 58% to retain his seat.
Finally, while the Nebraska 2nd has gone Democratic in recent Presidential races (the so-called “Blue Dot” of Omaha within the red prairie sea), moderate Republican Don Bacon has kept the seat red in the House, winning 51-49 in 2024. Bacon is retiring, and without him Silver has the Republicans’ chances of retaining the seat at only 4%. Having said that, I was in Omaha recently on business and I certainly saw a lot more signs for the Republican (Brinker) than I did for the Democrat (Powell), but that likely reflected the parts of town I was driving through. Silver even has the Democrats with a puncher’s chance, 13%, of picking up the Nebraska 1st (centered around Lincoln), which the Republican incumbent (Flood) won 60-40 in 2024.