As a great man once said: “The waiting is the hardest part / Every day you see one more card…”

No additional state-level calls were made yesterday, although as vote trickles in things continue to be drifting in Biden’s direction:

• In Georgia Biden’s lead now exceeds 7K votes, 49.4% to 49.3%. The Republican Secretary of State has announced a recount will occur, but we could soon approach “apparent winner” territory as they run out of vote to count. The Purdue-Ossoff race will indeed to go a runoff, so in principle the Democrats could get to a 50-50 Senate tie by winning both January Georgia runoff elections, but in practice I don’t see that happening.
• In Pennsylvania Biden’s lead continues to widen and is now almost 29K votes, 49.6% to 49.1%. It seems that ultimately Biden’s lead will likely exceed the mandatory recount threshold in that state of 0.5%.
• In Nevada Biden’s lead has also continued to widen, now sitting at more 28K votes, 49.8% to 48.0%.
• As I was writing this, the latest tranche of vote results from Maricopa County in Arizona was released, and it cut Biden’s lead down to about 20K votes, 49.5% to 48.9%. Unlike the other three states above, the late-counted vote in Arizona has consistently favored Trump. However, given the rate at which Trump is catching up, it seems unlikely that there is enough vote left to count for Trump to pull ahead.

Biden gave a brief speech last night. I think he wants to give a victory speech tonight but it’s not clear whether the news organizations will make the call today.

Trump does not appear to have a viable litigation strategy. The sub-head of this New York Times article neatly summarizes the situation: “The president appeared to have little path through the courts to shift the outcome of the election, leaving him reliant on long shots like recounts or pressure on state legislatures.”

With the nation’s attention firmly focused on the election this week, we’ve overlooked the fact that COVID-19 is exploding. In Minnesota, a week ago today was the first day with more than 3,000 reported new cases in a day. New records have been set on each of the last four days, and yesterday’s reported number not only broke the 4,000 mark for the first time, but broke the 5,000 mark. Nationwide, three days ago we broke 100,000 reported new cases for the first time, and yesterday we broke the 130,000 mark. Yesterday Chief of Staff Meadows announced he had tested positive. Things are about to get bad.

About two hours ago Biden took over the lead in Pennsylvania. Right now his lead is about 7K votes and is expected to expand.

Georgia officials recently announced that a recount will occur in the fullness of time. Biden’s lead there is currently about 1.5K votes.

In Arizona, the conventional wisdom over the past 24-36 hours has been that Trump would need 59% of the incremental uncounted vote to catch up. Until now, he had been keeping pace with that target. However, minutes ago 62K new votes in Maricopa County just came in, and Trump only got 53% of that incremental vote. This is making it look more likely that Biden will hold on to his Arizona lead.

As such, it is looking more and more like Biden will win 306-232, having flipped 74 electoral votes from 2016: Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), and Nebraska’s 2nd district (1). But, in addition to likely recounts in at least Georgia and Wisconsin, there will surely be litigation of various sorts.

A couple of hours ago, Biden took the lead in Georgia for the first time; he currently leads by 1,096 votes.

Georgia would give Biden 269 electoral votes, so a tie is still possible, but Trump would need to hold on to his lead in Pennsylvania and reverse Biden’s leads in Arizona and Nevada. (And win Alaska, which remains uncalled since it has yet to start counting its mail-in vote, although it seems like a safe Trump state.)

The Pennsylvania mail-in vote continues to trickle in. Trump’s lead is now down to 18K, or 0.3%. There are believed to be 54K votes yet to be counted in heavily democratic Philadelphia, and those votes are expected to propel Biden into the lead.

Some additional votes from Clark County (Las Vegas) are expected to released later this morning. This will likely increase Biden’s current 11K lead in Nevada.

There are believed to be over 200K votes in Maricopa County (Phoenix) yet to be processed, some of which will be released later this morning. Biden is currently leading in Arizona by 47K. Biden’s lead has been eroding and may continue to erode. In the Arizona Senate race, Kelly has been outperforming Biden by about 1%, and that race has been called for the Democratic challenger to Senator McSally even though the Presidential race remains in doubt.

It would not surprise me if news organizations start calling the Presidential race for Biden before I go to bed tonight.

Trump gave a press conference yesterday evening, timed to coincide with the 3 networks’ evening news. I didn’t listen to it, but the headline “Trump lies in the White House briefing room, and the networks pull the plug” sounds like what I would have expected to happen.

When I was 14 or thereabouts, I played a lot of computer games on my Apple ][e. One game that I particularly enjoyed was “President Elect”. It was an early example of what we would now call a turn-based strategy game, simulating a presidential campaign. You could play in ‘historical’ mode, in any election from 1960 to 1984; or you could alter the candidates and/or economic conditions.

After playing it for a while, one day I felt very impish, and I decided I would try and create a series of conditions that the game couldn’t effectively handle. So, I set up an election in which the Republicans had nominated the very liberal Jesse Jackson; the Democrats had nominated the very conservative Jesse Helms; and then moderate John Anderson ran as an independent.

To the extent my objective was to create chaos, I succeeded beyond my wildest dreams: My recollection, a third-of-a-century later, is that the outcome of the election ultimately hinged on a margin of 7 votes in Hawaii. (Not that I can remember who actually won.)

I bring that up because I’m starting to feel like we’re all living in somebody’s simulation of an ultra-close chaotic presidential election…

There have been no new developments in Nevada or North Carolina since I last wrote several hours ago, but the other three states keep tightening:

• in Georgia, Trump’s lead is now down to about 1,900 votes, with both candidate’s share rounding to 49.4%;
• in Pennsylvania, things keep narrowing and it’s now Trump 49.7%, Biden 49.0%; and
• in Arizona, things also keep narrowing in the other direction, with things now at Biden 50.1%, Trump 48.5%.

It’s very, very tight. If Biden does win, there could be multiple states where Biden’s margin of victory over Trump is less than the meager percentage of votes that went to the Libertarian candidate, Jorgensen: AZ (1.4%), GA (1.2%), PA (1.1%), NV (1.0%), and WI (1.2%).

Vote continues to be counted in the several remaining states of interest. A quick snapshot of the current state of affairs:

• In Nevada, where no change was made yesterday to voting totals, this morning Biden’s lead has widened slightly from 8K to 12K, or 0.9%.
• In Arizona, there is more outstanding vote yet to be counted than was originally believed (which may have misled some news organizations into calling Arizona for Biden); but, unlike in the other states of interest, this late vote appears to be breaking for Trump. Over the past 24 hours Biden’s margin has narrowed from 3.4% to 2.5%.
• Georgia keeps narrowing as the vote totals from metropolitan Atlanta increase. Right now Trump’s lead is down to less than 14K, or 0.3%. Senator Purdue is now at 50.0%; if he drops below 50% then there will be two separate runoff Senate elections in January.
• Pennsylvania also keeps narrowing as votes from Philadelphia and elsewhere trickle in. Trump’s margin, in double digits on election night, is now down to 1.8%, or 115K votes.
• North Carolina looks to be in a suspended state, as they wait for ballots postmarked by election day to arrive and be counted. The state remains uncalled but there don’t look to have been any updates made to the vote totals lately, with Trump still ahead by 1.4% and Senator Tillis still ahead by 1.8%

Nate Cohn (from the New York Times’ The Upshot) thinks things look good for Biden in NV, AZ, GA, and PA. If true that would give Biden a 306-232 win, which is exactly the same as the Trump-Clinton electoral vote margin in 2016 (before taking faithless electors into account).

Right now Biden has a 3.8 million vote lead in the national popular vote, which is only about 1 million more than Clinton’s 2016 lead. However, I imagine that lead will continue to widen, with plenty of vote yet to be counted in Democratic strongholds like California, New York, and Illinois.

In the past several hours, news organizations have named Biden the “apparent winner” in Wisconsin, as vote tabulation appears to be complete but his margin is narrow enough that a recount may occur. He has a 20K vote lead, or 0.6%; that’s smaller than Trump’s margin of victory in Wisconsin four years ago.

News organizations have also named Biden the winner in Michigan, as the counting of votes from urban areas has given him an ever-widening lead throughout the day. Right now his lead is about 120K votes, or 2.1%.

Trump’s leads in both Georgia and Pennsylvania have been compressing throughout the day as votes from urban areas come in. Trump’s lead in Georgia currently sits at only 80K, or 0.8%; Senator Perdue remains very slightly above the all-important 50% line, at 50.2%. Pennsylvania is now at 51-48 Trump, whereas I think he started the day ahead more like 56-43. Both states remain in significant doubt.

North Carolina hasn’t been called yet, but Trump’s lead remains 1.4% and the result here seems less uncertain than in GA or PA. Senator Tillis has a 1.8% lead over Cunningham.

There have been no new developments during the day in either Arizona or Nevada, although both states are expected to report new votes later tonight. Some news organizations have not yet called Arizona for Biden. While Biden’s lead in Nevada is only 8K, or 0.6%, most observers seem to believe the uncounted vote there is more likely to break for Biden; whereas in Arizona, where Biden’s lead in 3.4%, the nature of the uncounted vote is less clear.

At any rate: Nevada plus Arizona is enough to get Biden to 270 regardless of what happens in GA/PA/NC. In mid-afternoon Biden gave a brief speech, including a statement that will probably go down in the annals of U.S. political history as one of the great semantic statements of all time:

I’m not here to declare that we’ve won, but I am here to report when the count is finished, we believe we will be the winners.

Naturally I was reminded of the famous line from “Deep Space Homer”:

Gentlemen, you’ve both worked very hard. And in a way, you’re both winners. But in another more accurate way, Barney is the winner.

One disappointing piece of news this afternoon was that Gideon conceded to Senator Collins in Maine. It looks like Collins has actually made it to 51% on first-choice votes, without the need to redistribute the third-party candidates’ votes.

We may soon be entering the “protracted litigation phase” of the Presidential election. And, of course, if things break badly for Biden from here and the final total ends up at 270-268, then we could eventually enter the “faithless elector” phase, as highlighted in a new article today from The Atlantic.

A quick snapshot of where things currently stand, roughly 18 hours after polls started closing in the Eastern states:

• Wisconsin. An election official just announced that she’s aware of only 1 municipality whose votes have not yet been tabulated, and it has only several hundred votes. Biden is currently ahead by about 20K votes, or 0.7%.
• Michigan. Biden is currently ahead by about 45K votes, or 0.9%, and it seems to be trending in a favorable direction for Biden.
• Arizona. Biden is currently ahead by about 93K votes, or 3.4%. Many but not all news outlets have called the state for Biden at this point. Infamously, Fox News had called it early last night, then later retracted it, supposedly under considerable pressure from the Trump campaign to so do.
• Nevada. Biden is currently ahead by only 8K votes, or 0.6%, and the state has announced there will be no further updates until tomorrow morning.
• Nebraska-2. Biden remains comfortably ahead, currently by 6.5%.
• Georgia and North Carolina. Neither state has been called yet, but Trump is up by 1.8% and 1.4%, respectively.
• Pennsylvania. Trump is currently ahead by about 8% but there is plenty more vote to be counted that is expected to be favorable to Biden.

No real movement in the past few hours. However I’ve seen some analysis suggesting that WI, MI, and NV all seem likely to remain as narrow Biden victories. With that, and with AZ looking good for Biden and NE-2 in the bag, that puts the “Plan A2” 270-268 scenario in play, even if GA, NC, and PA all go south. Having said that, if we really end up at 270-268 then the entire “faithless elector” situation comes into play, as if we needed more chaos…

A friend has pointed out that in the unlikely event that MI (with 16 electoral votes) and NC (15) were to flip outcomes from how things currently look, we could still end at a 269-269 tie.

Things do not look promising, from my standpoint, for two state-level initiatives I care deeply about. First, California Proposition 22, which classifies app-based drivers as independent contractors rather than employees, appears to have passed. I’ll save my anguish over the process and outcome for some other post some other time. Second, the Illinois constitutional amendment to permit graduated tax rates is currently losing 55-45, although it’s unclear to me how much Illinois vote remains to be counted and of what type. The Illinois results reported to date seem strange to me, with Biden only ahead 55-43 and Senator Durbin only ahead 52-41, which makes me suspect there could still be a lot of left-leaning vote to be counted.

As expected, both my wife’s riding (MN-4) and mine (IL-4) have been called for the incumbent. Oh wait, we don’t call them “ridings” here, we call them “districts” – my mistake. The neighboring rid… district of MN-2, where my wife’s employer is based, has not yet been called. The incumbent Democrat, Craig, is currently ahead of her Republican challenger 49-47. Six percent of the vote went to the candidate of the Legalize Marijuana Now Party, even though he died six weeks ago; before his death he had admitted to a close friend that Republicans encouraged him to run in order to siphon votes away from Craig. Originally his death was going to cause a postponement of the election to February, and although Craig successfully sued to have the election go ahead as planned, litigation on that point may continue post-election.

I got some sleep, and woke up to an even more uncertain and chaotic electoral landscape than I was expecting to find. The New York Times headline right now is “Election Turns Into Nailbiter That May Extend For Days.”

It is very clear that the Republicans had an excellent night. They seem poised to gain some seats in the House, contrary to general expectations, but not enough seats to jeopardize the Democratic majority. It also seems increasingly likely that they will retain the Senate: overnight the Montana race was declared for Daines, and while the Georgia and Maine and North Carolina races remain uncalled they all are looking good for the Republicans.

And then there’s the Presidency. As of right now Biden has only razor-thin leads in both Wisconsin (where the Milwaukee early vote came in an hour ago) and Nevada. Michigan also looks like it will be closer than expected. Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Pennsylvania remain uncertain.

There is a need for patience to allow the various states to complete their normal counting processes, before we can really understand the lay of the land. However patience is difficult. At this point I don’t believe that any news organizations have gone out on a limb and called the election, although Trump made some comments in the middle of the night that have been interpreted as a declaration of victory.

The headline of this article from Politico’s Ryan Lizza sounds about right: “Biden Looks Screwed Even If He Wins.”

It really is time to head to bed, even if I said that an hour ago…

Iowa and Texas have been called for Trump within the last hour. North Carolina remains a remote possibility for Biden. Some pundits feel more optimistic about the possibility of Georgia, where we’re still waiting for a lot of vote from Fulton County and other metropolitan Atlanta areas.

The “two paths” argument for Biden is becoming conventional wisdom: If we presume Biden holds Nevada and flips Michigan and Wisconsin, then Biden can prevail by winning Pennsylvania, or by winning Arizona plus Omaha. Biden is now sitting at +7.5 in Nebraska-2, which is consistent with pre-election expectations.

Biden gave a brief speech in Delaware to his supporters maybe half an hour ago, expressing confidence that he will prevail once all the vote is counted. There is a rumor Trump will give a speech soon but I’m not going to wait up to hear it.

The Senate race continues to favor the Republicans. Montana has been close all night but is currently 52-48 in favor of Daines. North Carolina is now 49-47 in favor of Tillis. Iowa was called for Ernst. The Perdue-Ossoff race is still a wildcard given how much Atlanta vote is outstanding. Too early to know anything about Alaska.