Trump 2.0: Days 148-150

Still on vacation in Canada, and am writing this from a train bound for Montreal. It’s a national day of mourning here, as last night the Edmonton Oilers lost the Stanley Cup Final to the Florida Panthers 4 games to 2, now making it 32 straight years that the Cup has gone to a U.S. team instead of a Canadian team.

Canada has been in the world spotlight for other reasons this week, as Prime Minister Carney has been hosting the annual G7 Summit out in Alberta. Trump showed up but then left halfway through the summit, citing the Iran-Israel War that broke out a few days ago as the pretext for a sudden return to D.C. Trump’s public statements today have been ambiguous as to whether he intends for the U.S. to join the war.

A three-judge panel of the 9th Circuit held oral arguments yesterday in Newsom v. Trump, the National Guard federalization case, but the questioning appeared to indicate the judges think Trump’s position has the better merits. Things have remained relatively calm in L.A. in recent days, with Mayor Bass yesterday lifting the evening curfew in effect for portions of downtown L.A. for the past 7 days.

Although we’re only about six weeks out from the Federal Circuit taking substantive action on the V.O.S. Selection v. Trump challenge to Trump’s use of IEEPA to justify various types of tariffs, yesterday a different set of plaintiffs urged SCOTUS to grant certiorari before judgment on its IEEPA tariffs case working its way through the D.C. Circuit, with the aim of getting oral argument at SCOTUS scheduled for October or even earlier. This case, Learning Resources v. Trump, presents the question of whether IEEPA’s grant of presidential authority to “regulate importation” authorizes any tariffs at all. The V.O.S. Selections case, by contrast, pre-supposed that IEEPA could authorize tariffs but then argued that these particular tariffs were beyond the scope of that authority.

Nothing of note from the SCOTUS shadow docket in recent days. On the regular docket, today the canonical 6-3 majority upheld (in U.S. v. Skremetti) a Tennessee law that forbids minors from receiving gender-affirming care. When the case was heard in December, the Biden administration was appealing a decision below that upheld the law, with General Prelogar making what I think was her last such appearance before the Court. In February the Trump administration informed the Court that it was changing its position about the constitutionality of the law, but urged that the Court continue with its opinion rather than dismiss the suit.

Finally, the Senate hopes to start taking votes on OBBBA by the middle of next week, but it is far from certain that Trump’s July 4th deadline for enactment can be met, as the competing priorities of Senate Republicans and House Republicans remain difficult to reconcile with one another.