Election 2026: Day 0, 11:59pm

Unexpectedly, I think this can be my last post of the night and I can head to bed soon. The major outlines of the night are known; it was, indeed, the blue tsunami.

The current score in the House per the NYTimes is only 204-123, but their expectation for the final House margin is a staggering 256-179. That looks to be something like a 90th percentile result from Silver’s model.

With Maine having been called since I last posted, the current score in the Senate is 53-41. Michigan is looking excellent for El-Sayed; he is currently ahead 50.6% to 47.4% with two-thirds of the vote in, but much of the outstanding vote is from Wayne County. I fully imagine this race will be called in the very early morning hours.

While I was writing this post, Colom took a 28-vote lead in the Mississippi Senate race. Remarkable. The NYTimes needle has Hyde-Smith’s chances of winning back down to only 70%. A Black independent candidate, Pinkins, has 2.1% of the vote.

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