The waiting, as Tom Petty put it, is the hardest part. Not much action lately.

Having said that, NBC News is doing a projection of the ultimate House count, and they’re currently at 248. That would appear to be roughly an 80th percentile result relative to Silver’s model, which ended at a median of 241.

North Carolina is turning into a massive tire fire for the Republicans. They came into the cycle with a 10-4 House edge, and passed a gerrymander that was intended to flip the 1st, getting them to 11-3. They’re losing the 1st, which as noted earlier was expected by Silver, and which was the most expensive House race in the country. Silver also had them at 85% to lose the 11th, on the other end of the state, which I believe was unaffected by the gerrymander; and they’ve lost it. But right now they’re at serious risk of the losing the 6th (a 2% chance per Silver’s model). the 9th (12% chance), the 13th (10% chance), and the 14th (4%).

I talked earlier about the Kentucky 6th, which Silver thought was a pure toss-up. At that time the Democrat Dembo was several points behind, but the NYTimes model thought he would win by less than a point. He has now won, 53-43. It is also looking like Ford is going to beat Spartz in the Indiana 5th, now being ahead 51.7% to 48.3%.

Coming closer to home, Cooke is ahead of Van Orden 53-45 in the Wisconsin 3rd with two-thirds of the vote in. No significant votes totals from Minnesota yet.