Things continue to look promising for the Democrats on the eve of the 2026 elections. The final patch of NYTimes polls coming out yesterday were almost unbelievably good for the blue team: El-Sayed winning 53-42, Talarico winning 50-43, Hamilton winning 49-44. Jackson winning 51-45, Brown winning 49-44. If those polls are on target, a blue tsunami is coming.

Silver’s model’s likelihood that the Democrats get to 51 Senate seats cracked 80% for the first time yesterday and continued to tick up slightly today. He now sees 54 seats as being only slightly less likely than 53.

Over in the House, I noted recently that every single one of the 17 seats in my former state of Illinois is, per Silver’s model, at least a 99.5% favorite for either the Democrats (14) or the Republicans (3). I suppose that’s modern gerrymandering at its finest. Speaking of modern gerrymandering, North Carolina had adopted a new map last year that was intended to change the partisan balance of its delegation from 10-4 Republican to 11-3. However the district that was supposed to flip, the Democratic-held 1st, has become the most expensive House race in U.S. history with over $50 million in spending from both sides combined, and per Silver’s model is seen as an 88% favorite to remain in Democratic hands.

Shifting gears, I wanted to mention two recently filed lawsuits related to actions taken by the administration.

First, a U.S. company that imports Canadian cheeses recently filed a lawsuit in the Court of International Trade regarding Trump’s new 50% tariffs against Canada under Section 338 of the Smoot-Hawley Act. The lawsuit articulates 5 separate independent grounds as to why the tariffs are invalid, each of which is quite possibly correct, and any of which would suffice for plaintiffs to win.

Second, Virginia and D.C. filed suit this weekend to block Trump’s plans to start building a controversial 250-foot tall Triumphal Arch, for which construction could start as soon as Thursday. The case has ended up in the courtroom of Judge Chutkan, best known for presiding over Special Counsel Smith’s election interference case against Trump.